The Riding the Pine 2010 NFL Preview, Part I: State of the Bills Address

I started playing Words with Friends (Scrabble) about a week ago. It’s definitely addicting … it’s also unbelievably frustrating at times. It’s not hard to figure out where I’ve had that feeling before.

For the past decade, the Buffalo Bills have not been epically bad; they rarely got to that Detroit Lions-level of ineptitude. And that’s one of the more frustrating parts. Since they’ve been stuck in an abyss of mediocrity they haven’t gotten a shot at a truly elite quarterback prospect. (Note: they did have the number four overall pick in 2002. “Starter for the next ten years at tackle” Mike Williams was the pick. Yeah…) (Note II: I don’t want them to be bad just to get a good draft pick, which would be ridiculous. I’m just pointing out that if your team does happen to stink at the right time it could great benefit them, particularly if they get someone like, say, Peyton Manning.) Plus, there’s always just enough hope that the Bills will be the surprise team of the year and end that playoff drought, or find their version of Kurt Warner.

Soon, you realize it’s not going to happen. And that sucks. So, what is it, bad luck? Horrible ownership? A curse? All of the above?

Luck is certainly part of it, but it’s easy to blame bad luck. Just like when I lose in Words with Friends because my opponent scored 35 points of the word “qat” (sounds made up, in fact even my Word spellchecker thinks it’s made up) or the computer gives me all consonants, my initial reaction is to call shenanigans. We’re always quick to blame outside factors, refs especially, are a constant target of mine. That’s too easy though, luck is important to success but so is hiring talented people to run your team. I don’t feel the Bills have taken a proactive, win-at-all-costs approach to their business lately. It’s shown.

I mean, even I started using “qat” against my opponents.

You don’t want to rely too heavily on mirroring another team’s success, but it can’t hurt to take a peek at the blueprint. The Bills, Ralph Wilson in particular, seem content on doing their own thing. Hire a retired, 70-year old rookie GM, why not? Ignore the tackle and quarterback positions? Sure. The teams that have turned around their franchises quickly (I’m thinking of Miami and Atlanta primarily) took similar approaches to each other and pretty much the opposite approach as Buffalo.

Miami and Atlanta did go in different directions regarding their general manager picks, though both worked out and both drew off the concept of hiring someone from a successful environment. The Dolphins snagged Bill Parcells (a move the Bills couldn’t make if they tried. Which they probably wouldn’t try). The Falcons picked a promising talent from a winning franchise, Thomas Dimitroff, formerly of New England. This is what I was hoping the Bills would do (although, to be fair, I’ll definitely give Buddy Nix a shot, and bringing former Steeler Doug Whaley into the mix looks to be a solid move as well). They also drafted franchise players (Jake Long and Matt Ryan). Of course, that again brings me back to the point that the Bills haven’t been bad enough to warrant a draft pick that can get them a talent like Ryan or Long. Still, they’ve pretty much ignored those two positions, I mean, there has to be some way to improve them, right?

The Jets got the quarterback they wanted by ripping off a stupid team. I wish the Bills would make more trades simply because if you go after the incompetent GM’s you can really help yourselves out. For instance, the Jets trading from the 17th overall pick to the 5th to get Sanchez and did this without having to give up the next year’s first round pick. They just traded the Browns a bunch of backups and scrubs that Eric Mangini liked (horrible). I fear though that the problem is this: the Bills are one of those stupid teams. They’re more likely to get ripped off than to take advantage of another team’s moronic tendencies. A look at their recent drafts really lends creditability to the “stupid team” theory.

Before the 2010 draft, I wrote a column campaigning for the Bills to select Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen. To my delight, Clausen was available with the number nine overall pick (remember, leading up to the draft, this was very much in doubt). The Bills practically sprinted to the podium and I thought, “Yes, we have our quarterback.” But I was also reading the ESPN live draft chat as I was watching. The guy on there had been announcing the picks before they were actually made… he said the Bills were picking Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, the top rated running back. I was not happy. Like a lot of Bills fans I scoffed at this pick because they simply did not need another running back.

Needless to say, by the time the second round was ready to start the next day, I had watched enough Spiller YouTube highlights to get excited. Now, at this point, I believe it’s going to turn out to be a great pick. Spiller looks like a future superstar, he certainly could turn into one of the most exciting players in the league and a future Madden-cover candidate (well, you know, if it weren’t for the “No Bills allowed” rule).

I’ll have more on Spiller later in part II, but for all the potential he has, I still have this irksome feeling that the Bills missed a great opportunity in the draft. After Clausen slipped out of the first round, I desperately wanted the Bills to trade up and get their franchise guy. Spiller and Clausen would be the future of offense in Buffalo and a great start to getting this team back to the Super Bowl. When both Clausen and Colt McCoy fell to the second round I couldn’t believe it, finally some luck for the Bills. And then…

The Bills selected Torrell Troup. I couldn’t (and still can't) shake that nagging feeling that the Bills just made one of the moves that you look back on and say, “Oh, we could have had (whoever).” Like picking Mike Williams over Dwight Freeney, Donte Whitner over Haloti Ngata, Marshawn Lynch over Darrelle Revis, you get the point, there’s a lot of them. I know the Bills needed a nose tackle and the P.R. people at Buffalo tell me he’s going to be very good, and he better be. They need him to be a Pro Bowler. By the time the third round rolled along, I knew they weren’t picking a quarterback. Colt McCoy was there, but obviously he, nor any passer in this draft, were thought of as franchise guys by the Bills’ brass.

I realize that Buddy Nix knows way more about football than myself. I mean, I would have taken a guy who lasted until pick 48 over the electric Spiller. As a scout, Nix has that he has a keen eye for talent, but still, why completely ignore the quarterback position? And the left tackle position? The Edwards/Bell combination does not inspire confidence from Bills nation.

Not to mention, waiting until next year to get your quarterback seems very risky (might I add, a strategy that many Bills fans actually wanted). I’m not that confident that they will pick the right guy. We can pray that Brian Brohm suddenly looks like the Louisville All-Star or that Levi Brown is a Tom Brady, Kurt Warner or even Tony Romo type steal. I just can’t buy into the fact that Trent Edwards is the answer. Obviously, I’d love to see him become that franchise guy that Buffalo desperately craves, I would just be shocked if it actually happens.

What about next year’s draft? People are already talking about Locker, Mallett, Ponder, Luck, etc. I’ll try to pay attention to these guys throughout the year because one them should end up as the Bills future passer/savior. Personally, I prefer Andrew Luck just because of his awesome name. Think about it, what great quarterback didn’t have an awesome name? The name is very important, plus I can already envision this lede a couple years from now:

All it took for the Buffalo Bills to finally win the Super Bowl was a little Luck.

Andrew Luck led Buffalo with …. (blah, blah, whatever, I’ll be to drunk and my eyes will be too blurry with tears to read the rest, but I think you get my point).

My only other suggestion for the Bills is something I tweeted a couple weeks ago: hire the guys from Inception. If you could plant ideas in Bill Polian’s head to trade Peyton Manning for Trent Edwards or go into Rex Ryan’s dreams and convince him to become a mime, you’d have to do it. But the more I thought about it, this would be considered cheating and in that case Bill Belichick would have already tried it.

Predictions coming in Part II.


Photo credit: Mike Groll The Associated Press

The Official 2008 Riding the Pine NFL Preview

Yeah, I know. The NFL season has technically already begun. But really, did Thursday night's Redskins-Giants game feel like regular season football? No, no it didn't didn't. You would have been better off watching reruns of The Office then watching that game, thanks in large part to the Washington Redskins and their ultra-conservative, minimually productive offense. They certainly stole the Steve Fairchild gameplan: run, run, short pass, punt, lose.

So forget that, this Sunday brings a slate of intriguing games. And doesn't the first Sunday of football seem like a holiday? All that anticipation, savoring each moment off pointless pregame hype by ESPN, Fox, CBS (and I guess the NFL Network too)before watching your favorite team unwrap their new offseason toys and start a quest to make history. And then of course, that anticipation turns to disapointment for most teams (especially for us Bills fans) as you watch enough baffling playcalling, pourous defense, careless turnovers to grab another beer (or ten) from the fridge.

We know the dissapointment will come eventually, it does for 31 fanbases every year. But we watch anyway. Why? Because if Eli Manning can win a Super Bowl, then so can your team. (Except for you Miami, there's better chance that fictional Miami bloodsplatter anaylaist Dexter Morgan will take his knife to Bill Parcells than the Dolphins have of winning more than six games.)

Not a second too late, here are my predictions that are sure to be way off, but are just too much fun to write or read that I have to do it...

AFC

AFC East
predicted finish:
1. (It pains me to type again...) New England Patriots*
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New (Jersey) Jets
4. The Miami 1-15's

I was reading something from last year's preview that made me decide to start this explanation from the bottom. About Cam Cameron and the Dolphins, I wrote: "As for the Dolphins, they're going to be bad this year. I'll leave it at that."

It turns out they were historically bad, pathetic really. Only the ineptitude of Brian Billick and the Ravens kept the Dolpins away from what would have been a glorious 0-16 season. So now all of a sudden a guy name "Tuna" is going to rescue the Dolphins? Come on! There's no doubt they'll be better than last year, how could they not, in fact they'll give some teams some troubles. I'm positive the Bills will have at least one close game with them this year. But the bottom line is, they'll still be losing. The fans that "fill up" half of Dolphin stadium will devasted. (But like I said earlier with each loss, they can still hope that Dexter will chose to go after true evil: Bill Belichick.)

Anyway, the AFC East, as a whole, is better than last year. Yet, I still think it will finish in the smae order. Last year, I predicted the order correctly (when most people incorrectly thought the Bills were inferior to the Jets... wow, that seems familiar)and I was close to nailing the Bills record. I said 8-8 or 9-7 and earning the final Wild Card spot. They finished 7-9 (argh, again) and were a two cololosal (mess)-ups away from 9-7 (damn you Denver and Dallas games.

So with caution I'm going to pick the Bills for the Wild Card again this year. My reasoning is this: they have to better than last year, right? They have an easier schedule, heatlhier team (knock on wood), more talent, and Trent Edwards has the look of one of those QBs who frustrate other teams because his stats aren't great, he isn't on Sportscenter a lot, but his team wins a lot. I'm thinking a young (and I mean young, not the freak touchdown machine years) Tom Brady or Ben Roesthislberger. Now, those guys both won Super Bowls in their respective second years, this is Edwards second year. I'm just saying...

Again, it's that optimism thing. Why else would someone compare a second-year, third-rounder, with a history of injuries on a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2000, to a future hall of famer and a perennial Pro Bowler? Teams like the Rams of 99 and Giants of last year are to blame for this phenominom - they give too many teams (and by teams I mean the fan base of these teams) false hope that this will be their year. Because (cynic alert) in all liklihood it won't be.

I really do like this Bills team though. They just have to show that they can stay healthy, manage to not shoot themselves in the cleat (that means you Jason Peters), and not to put starters on the IR because of spite (I'll hold off going into detail about the Angelo Crowell situation since no one seems to know what's really going on here. But I'm hoping it's not as bad, or bushleague, as it sounds).

I could go on talking about the Bills, but I'll save some of that for the regular season. As for the Jets... well, they remind me of the Bills during the Tom Donahue era. Signing big name free agents, tossing money around to washed-up former Pro Bowlers, and speaking of washed up older Pro Bowlers, trading for one to play QB. Granted, these Jets have a better offensive line than those Bills (because Donahue mostly ignored that aspect of football) and even a almost 40-year old Favre is better than the Bledsoe version 33.0. But those Bills team had a really good defense (better than this year's Jet's D) that kept them in games. When all is said and done I'm thinking 7-9 or maybe 8-8 for the Jets because they too have an easy schedule. I wouldn't be sursprised if they were worse than that though and I would be shocked if they end up making the playoffs. In fact, I think the only way for them to make the playoffs is through some league/ESPN conspiracy to get Favre into the playoffs. Which would never - wait a second, I could definitly see that happening.

(One more thing about Favre. I'm wondering about the fact that the Jets recievers are used to catching lob shots from Pennington and are now going to catch fastballs from Favre. Will one preseason be enough to make that adjustment? I say no. The Jets will lead the laegue in dropped passes.)

On to the next Division...wait, you're wondering why I'm only talking about three of the four AFC East teams. I thought that was required since most of the so-called previews of this division I've watched have only talked about three teams and acted like the remaining team was unimportant. I don't know if it's a coincidence but the team that all these networks/websites neglected was the Bills. Well, okay, I'm choosing to ignore the Patriots.

AFC North
Predicted Finish
1. Cleveland Browns
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Cincinatti Bengals (also known as the Bangalas de Cincinatti)

I messed up the Browns pick last year, but even worse is that I just found out that I used the Dexter joke in last year's column too (weak). Anyway, it's risky picking the Browns this year, they went from being everyone's surprise pick (albeit not much of a surprise since they were 10-6 and robbed of the playoffs last year) to team that is overrated. All because of a tough schedule and a weak preseason.

Well, the Steelers have a tough 17 weeks too and they didn't impress me with their preseason performance against Buffalo in Toronto either. However, I do think that the QB simply known as "Big Ben" has passed Carson Palmer as the best quarterback in the division. Derek Anderson is good too, no fluke like some have suggested, but he does have to tone down the turnovers and be more consistant - that's the case for most young signal callers though. Joe Flacco is way, way, way behind all of them so far. The Ravens better be patient with him or it may seem like they have another Kyle Boller sized bust, when in fact the young man just needs time to learn and develop.

The Bengals seem like a mess, so I picked them to finish last but they could have flip-flop with Baltimore or the two teams could have the same record. Either way, both won't be good and Marvin Lewis probably won't be the coach too much longer. He might be better off coaching a better run organization anyway.

Here's my thoughts on the receiver fromerly known as Chad Johnson and the headache currently known as Chad Ocho Cinco. He wants to be traded he says. Well what happens if he gets traded to a team with a player who already wears 85. If I was that player I would refuse to sell him that number no matter how much he offered. The humor of Ocho Cinco wearing 86, 87 or anything else besides 85 is just too great. (And I know other agree with me because I've seen this same point in other sports columns, but still it's the first thing I thought of when I heard the name change so I had to put it in here).

AFC South
Predicted Finish
1. Indy Colts
2. Jacksonville Jags
3. Tennesse Titans (Home of the Home-run illegal forward pass-back)
4. Houston Texans

Every team in this division is good. But only one has Peyton Manning.

Like many, I was tempted to say that this is the year that Jacksonville passes Manning, Dungy and crew. The Jags will be tough for everyone to handle, but I can't put them at the level with the Colts, Patriots, or even Chargers, yet. I love the way their team plays, physical, smash mouth, crushing defense, but I would be one of the people calling shenanagins if a team with a fanbase as palrty as Jacksonville's gets to bask in the euphoria of a Super Bowl Championship before the us die-hards in Western New York.

Their D is great (although hopefully they'll miss Marcus Stroud), their running game is terrific and I like Garrard as their Quarterback. But their recievers are suspect and they'll have some problems outside of the game, most recently with the shooting of Collier. So at this point they're still a wild card. A very good wild card team.

As for the Titans, they're also very good. They're led by a strong defense and an excellant coach. Furthermore, I think Vince Young will be a very good quarterback in this league (right now he has a very good W-L record, mediocre stats and a ton of critics). I still thought Cleveland deserved that final playoff spot last year instead of the Titans, and this year Jeff Fisher's crew will be the odd team out.

Houston has a good young team, I think they're still a few years off though. I'll admit it was fun last year to waatch this team and DE Mario Williams give a Texas-sized middle finger to all the people out there that thought they were insane for not picking Bush. I still think they might have wanted to go with Young, mainly because I'm not sold on Matt Shaub yet, but almost every team in the league would kill to have a player like Super Mario. Especially after the Giants showed last year how important a relentless pass rush can be.

It's just too bad they play in one of the toughest, competitive divisions in the league.

AFC West
Predicted finish
1. San Diego (Super) Chargers
2. Denver Broncos
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers should win this division easily. I picked them as the champs last year and they didn't come through. They did (and actually still do) have some key injuries but really worried me was their cowardly coaching. I call it "pussy ball." It's when a team plays overly conservative to try and minimize mistakes but they're really just killing themselves with predictablity. Dick Jauron is guilty of this too, and that worries me (playing "pussy ball" and injuries are my biggest concerns for the Bills). The Redskins employed this method on Thursday night too, it didn't work out.

Here's another reason I think the super talented Chargers won't make it to the Super Bowl, and it doesn't have anything to do with Shawne Merriman's knee. It's more of a hunch, a feeling if you will. It happened recently in the NHL with the Buffalo Sabres and in the NBA with the Phoenix Suns; a talented offensive jaugernaut rules the regular season, looks unbeatable at times and have fans thinking championship. Only in the end, those same fans are left wondering how a team with so much talent, and so many wins, could fail to even make the championship round. They're frequent guests in the Conferance championship round but a freak amalgamtion of bad luck and injuries allows another team to steal the title.

I had to suffer through it with the Sabres, Suns fans had to live through it, and I'm afraid the same thing will happen to the Chargers. I hope it doesn't because for the most part I like them more than Indy or definitly more than New England. But I believe in these sort of parallels, but don't worry Bolt fans I'm sure Ladanian Tomlinson has a more optimistic view.

If my aforementioned analogy is right (which it almost certainly is) than Denver, Oakland and KC aren't going to come close to San Diego. Denver should be decent, Jay Cutler is a good young player to have leading your team. He's far from elite, but could take a team to the playoffs. The Raiders should be better than last year and Darren McFadden will be exciting to watch, not as good as Adrian Peterson, like some expect, but still a Rookie of the Year favorite (not necessarily the winner though).

The Chiefs will be bad. Arrowhead Stadium should still give some teams headaches so they'll squeeze out enough wins to avoid being being the team to pick 1st in next year's draft. They'll be in the top five though, regardless of the health of Larry Johnson too.

NFC

NFC East
Predicted finish
1. New (Jersey) Giants
2. Dalla$ Cowboy$
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Washington "I swear I had them in last even before the sucked it up on Thrus. night" Redskins

I picked the Giants to finish last, last year. They won the Super Bowl. So I'm picking them first this year. Hey, what can I say it's a tough division to play in and a tough on to prognasticate.

The Eagles were my NFC team last year, they'll challenge for a playoff spot again. They're hard to peg because their season depends on the health of Donovon McNabb. He could be the MVP or he could miss half the season...

The Skins will struggle (see above) but they're far from being awful. And that leaves the Cowboys.

I'm seeing this team pegged as not only a Super Bowl favorite, but also as the team to win it all. And if that's not enough everyone is picking Romo to win the MVP. Usually when a guy chokes in every big game he's played, the media are all over him. But I guess if it's a nice story and he plays for the Cowboy$, so I guess he's a surefire Super Bowl MVP and one of the best players in the league. Are you kidding me?

Romo had a flat-out awesome regular season last year (besides the fact that he was scared of the crazies in Orchard park), but so did Daunte Culpepper a few years ago. Now Culpepper is retired. I certainly hope that Romo doesn't get hurt like that and share the same fate, but it goes to show you that one great year doesn't mean that Romo is in the same league with Manning and Brady. Despite what ESPN might think, he's not even the most proven QB in his division (that would be Eli Manning, you know, the guy that won the Super Bowl MVP in the real world).

That being said, I think I may see why these pundits like him so much (besides the fact that he has a star on his helmet). His story is a good one. He works hard and isn't smug like Brady or pompous like TO. I would probably root for him but again, he has that star on his helmet, so I won't. Wade Phillips is an easy guy to root for too, the Bills shouldn't have canned him when they did. Unfortunatly for him, Jason Garrett is going to be the head coach next year.

(Olympic side note for a sec, because a) they were awesome and I never wrote about them and b) Usain Bolt looks a little like TO and acts a lot like TO. Bolt has one of the potentially greatest names ever, but why has it not been legally changed to Lightning Bolt. That would be cheesy for anyone else, but for the fastest person on the planet, it's badass. He could, and should, get a Lightning Bolt tattoo on his skull and still be badass. No wonder the Jamacians are better on the track, their fastest guy has a cool name like Bolt, our guys are named Gay and Dix... Whatever, Bolt would get crushed in the NFL. Take that Jamaca! Last Olympic note: I'm glad weren't too many incidents involving the US and China, you know, because of the whole Jack Bauer situation.)

NFC North
Predicted finish
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay (wait.. Favre's not our QB anymore?)Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears

This will be one of the more exciting division races. I have the Vikes winning it and the Packers taking one of the wild card spots. I still have the Packers winning the Monday Night opener in Lambeu though. Let's hope Adrian Peterson can stay healthy, I'd love to see what he could do in a full 16 game schedule.

For the Pack, Aaron Rodgers reminds me a lot of JP Losman. Take that for what its worth. Also it concerns me that he has been hurt numerous times in his career while backing up a guy that, you know, never missed a game! How did he get hurt all the time without playing? How will he make it through the entire season? And how will the Brian Brohm/Matt Flynn tag-team fare in the regular season?

The Lions have talented players, but as long as Matt Millen is their GM I'll never pick them to make the playoffs.

The Bears? Well, I think they are a few months away from stating Devin Hester at quarterback.

NFC South
Predicted finish
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Tampa Bay Bucaneers
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Atlanta Falcons

This year's Super Bowl will be played in Tampa Bay, none of these teams will be there though. Sorry Bucs fans, you've already had your one Super Bowl for the decade. (Although Tampa is underrated and they don't get the respect they deserve. Anyway, I think they just barely miss the playoffs, but it could be a toss up between them and Green Bay.)

Carolina is an interesting team. I can see them being really good or really bad, so I'm predicting something in the middle (like 7-9 or 8-8). John Fox is on the hot seat, I've always thought of him as a good coach, so we'll see what he can do with this squad.

Atlanta will lose a lot. But Michael Turner could be a surprise Pro Bowl running back (albeit after some players drop out due to injuries) and Matt Ryan could be a surprise winner of the Rookie of the Year. He'll almost certainly get some sympathy votes.

The Saints will win the division, I like a lot of their offseason moves, but they won't be a strong threat to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

NFC West
Predicted finish
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. St. Louis Rams
4. San Fran 49ers

I think the Seahawks will lose their opening game to the Bills... but that won't stop them from making their second ever Super Bowl appearance. It's ironic that the NFC Super Bowl team would come from one of the weakest divisions in football. Seattle will win thanks to their awesome defense (Lofa Tatupu will win Defensive Player of the Year), Matt Hassleback carrying the offense for large stretches and because of coach Holmgren. Still, a banged up team, playing on the opposite coast will lose a close opener to another playoff team: the Buffalo Bills (or at least, I've talked myself into that).

Arizona will win some games over inferior opponents, but in the end their season will go down the tube like beer going down Matt Leinart's funnel. (Hey, he's just living the dream!)

The Rams will start the season out on another long (I mean looooooong) losing streak and still manage to edge out San Fran for last place.

Or will they.... In JT O'Sulliven we believe!

AFC Wild Card Teams
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Buffalo Bills (hell yeah!)

NFC Wild Card Teams
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Green Bay Packers

(...and if you're still reading) The Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts over the Seattle Seahawks

The battle of retiring coaches is won by Dungy and the Colts on a last second controversial call that reverses an apparent Seahawk touchdown. Seattle fans, Bill Belichick and Clay Bennett are responsible for the blown call. All hell breaks loose.

And a month later Brett Favre retires...

Or does he?


(to be continued.... again)





*- Indicates a team of sinister cheaters who's pact with Lucifer is about to expire (hopefully)