The Riding the Pine 2010 NFL Preview, Part I: State of the Bills Address

I started playing Words with Friends (Scrabble) about a week ago. It’s definitely addicting … it’s also unbelievably frustrating at times. It’s not hard to figure out where I’ve had that feeling before.

For the past decade, the Buffalo Bills have not been epically bad; they rarely got to that Detroit Lions-level of ineptitude. And that’s one of the more frustrating parts. Since they’ve been stuck in an abyss of mediocrity they haven’t gotten a shot at a truly elite quarterback prospect. (Note: they did have the number four overall pick in 2002. “Starter for the next ten years at tackle” Mike Williams was the pick. Yeah…) (Note II: I don’t want them to be bad just to get a good draft pick, which would be ridiculous. I’m just pointing out that if your team does happen to stink at the right time it could great benefit them, particularly if they get someone like, say, Peyton Manning.) Plus, there’s always just enough hope that the Bills will be the surprise team of the year and end that playoff drought, or find their version of Kurt Warner.

Soon, you realize it’s not going to happen. And that sucks. So, what is it, bad luck? Horrible ownership? A curse? All of the above?

Luck is certainly part of it, but it’s easy to blame bad luck. Just like when I lose in Words with Friends because my opponent scored 35 points of the word “qat” (sounds made up, in fact even my Word spellchecker thinks it’s made up) or the computer gives me all consonants, my initial reaction is to call shenanigans. We’re always quick to blame outside factors, refs especially, are a constant target of mine. That’s too easy though, luck is important to success but so is hiring talented people to run your team. I don’t feel the Bills have taken a proactive, win-at-all-costs approach to their business lately. It’s shown.

I mean, even I started using “qat” against my opponents.

You don’t want to rely too heavily on mirroring another team’s success, but it can’t hurt to take a peek at the blueprint. The Bills, Ralph Wilson in particular, seem content on doing their own thing. Hire a retired, 70-year old rookie GM, why not? Ignore the tackle and quarterback positions? Sure. The teams that have turned around their franchises quickly (I’m thinking of Miami and Atlanta primarily) took similar approaches to each other and pretty much the opposite approach as Buffalo.

Miami and Atlanta did go in different directions regarding their general manager picks, though both worked out and both drew off the concept of hiring someone from a successful environment. The Dolphins snagged Bill Parcells (a move the Bills couldn’t make if they tried. Which they probably wouldn’t try). The Falcons picked a promising talent from a winning franchise, Thomas Dimitroff, formerly of New England. This is what I was hoping the Bills would do (although, to be fair, I’ll definitely give Buddy Nix a shot, and bringing former Steeler Doug Whaley into the mix looks to be a solid move as well). They also drafted franchise players (Jake Long and Matt Ryan). Of course, that again brings me back to the point that the Bills haven’t been bad enough to warrant a draft pick that can get them a talent like Ryan or Long. Still, they’ve pretty much ignored those two positions, I mean, there has to be some way to improve them, right?

The Jets got the quarterback they wanted by ripping off a stupid team. I wish the Bills would make more trades simply because if you go after the incompetent GM’s you can really help yourselves out. For instance, the Jets trading from the 17th overall pick to the 5th to get Sanchez and did this without having to give up the next year’s first round pick. They just traded the Browns a bunch of backups and scrubs that Eric Mangini liked (horrible). I fear though that the problem is this: the Bills are one of those stupid teams. They’re more likely to get ripped off than to take advantage of another team’s moronic tendencies. A look at their recent drafts really lends creditability to the “stupid team” theory.

Before the 2010 draft, I wrote a column campaigning for the Bills to select Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen. To my delight, Clausen was available with the number nine overall pick (remember, leading up to the draft, this was very much in doubt). The Bills practically sprinted to the podium and I thought, “Yes, we have our quarterback.” But I was also reading the ESPN live draft chat as I was watching. The guy on there had been announcing the picks before they were actually made… he said the Bills were picking Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, the top rated running back. I was not happy. Like a lot of Bills fans I scoffed at this pick because they simply did not need another running back.

Needless to say, by the time the second round was ready to start the next day, I had watched enough Spiller YouTube highlights to get excited. Now, at this point, I believe it’s going to turn out to be a great pick. Spiller looks like a future superstar, he certainly could turn into one of the most exciting players in the league and a future Madden-cover candidate (well, you know, if it weren’t for the “No Bills allowed” rule).

I’ll have more on Spiller later in part II, but for all the potential he has, I still have this irksome feeling that the Bills missed a great opportunity in the draft. After Clausen slipped out of the first round, I desperately wanted the Bills to trade up and get their franchise guy. Spiller and Clausen would be the future of offense in Buffalo and a great start to getting this team back to the Super Bowl. When both Clausen and Colt McCoy fell to the second round I couldn’t believe it, finally some luck for the Bills. And then…

The Bills selected Torrell Troup. I couldn’t (and still can't) shake that nagging feeling that the Bills just made one of the moves that you look back on and say, “Oh, we could have had (whoever).” Like picking Mike Williams over Dwight Freeney, Donte Whitner over Haloti Ngata, Marshawn Lynch over Darrelle Revis, you get the point, there’s a lot of them. I know the Bills needed a nose tackle and the P.R. people at Buffalo tell me he’s going to be very good, and he better be. They need him to be a Pro Bowler. By the time the third round rolled along, I knew they weren’t picking a quarterback. Colt McCoy was there, but obviously he, nor any passer in this draft, were thought of as franchise guys by the Bills’ brass.

I realize that Buddy Nix knows way more about football than myself. I mean, I would have taken a guy who lasted until pick 48 over the electric Spiller. As a scout, Nix has that he has a keen eye for talent, but still, why completely ignore the quarterback position? And the left tackle position? The Edwards/Bell combination does not inspire confidence from Bills nation.

Not to mention, waiting until next year to get your quarterback seems very risky (might I add, a strategy that many Bills fans actually wanted). I’m not that confident that they will pick the right guy. We can pray that Brian Brohm suddenly looks like the Louisville All-Star or that Levi Brown is a Tom Brady, Kurt Warner or even Tony Romo type steal. I just can’t buy into the fact that Trent Edwards is the answer. Obviously, I’d love to see him become that franchise guy that Buffalo desperately craves, I would just be shocked if it actually happens.

What about next year’s draft? People are already talking about Locker, Mallett, Ponder, Luck, etc. I’ll try to pay attention to these guys throughout the year because one them should end up as the Bills future passer/savior. Personally, I prefer Andrew Luck just because of his awesome name. Think about it, what great quarterback didn’t have an awesome name? The name is very important, plus I can already envision this lede a couple years from now:

All it took for the Buffalo Bills to finally win the Super Bowl was a little Luck.

Andrew Luck led Buffalo with …. (blah, blah, whatever, I’ll be to drunk and my eyes will be too blurry with tears to read the rest, but I think you get my point).

My only other suggestion for the Bills is something I tweeted a couple weeks ago: hire the guys from Inception. If you could plant ideas in Bill Polian’s head to trade Peyton Manning for Trent Edwards or go into Rex Ryan’s dreams and convince him to become a mime, you’d have to do it. But the more I thought about it, this would be considered cheating and in that case Bill Belichick would have already tried it.

Predictions coming in Part II.


Photo credit: Mike Groll The Associated Press

Time to circle the wagons

There’s a scene in Kick-Ass (which if you haven’t seen it, you should because it’s awesome) that reminded me of the Buffalo Bills. More specifically what it has felt like to root for them for this past decade.

The scene is Kick-Ass’ first fight (small spoiler here, by the way), it’s against those two thugs in the parking lot. Those same guys harassed the non-costumed Kick-Ass and his friend earlier and stole their wallets. Let’s say for this analogy the two criminals are, I don’t know, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and Kick-Ass is the Bills. The audience represents Bills fans.

They start fighting and you might be thinking that the crazy underdog in the funny looking costume might actually win. He has his batons, he looks surprising skilled and might be on the verge of kicking some ass. And right when you start thinking this, one of the thugs (Belichick) pulls a knife and stabs him in the stomach. A cheap tactic for sure, but it doesn’t matter, the fight’s over. The would-be carjackers run away and our hero is left there bleeding freely from his wound. Bills fans are thinking this bad, this can’t get worse…. and then he gets ran over by a car.

And that’s where we are as Bills fans, the team we root for is a seemingly impossible, bloody mess that desperately needs to be fixed up and made stronger. They need a heavy dose of adamantium in their bones. That process starts with this year’s draft. This has to be the turning point, the time when this team gets an identity. And the only way to do that is to get a franchise quarterback.

I’ve heard that this is one of the strongest overall drafts that we’ve seen in a while, but that the quarterback class is a weak spot. I’m no scout (obviously), yet I think it’s vital that the Bills get one of the top four QB’s in the draft (Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow). I actually like this class and think all these guys have Pro Bowl potential (for more, you should definitely check out ESPN’s excellent feature, QB Camp with Jon Gruden).

The guy I really want to see the Bills draft is the former Notre Dame star, Clausen. He’s got a strong, but far from elite arm, but more importantly he’s a very accurate passer. He completed 68% of his passes last year, played through a tough toe injury and from what I’ve read, he was deadly in clutch scenarios. So to recap, excellent accurate, tough, plays well under pressure and possibly ready to start immediately.

The negatives that people list seem mostly superficial. These supposed flaws are that he’s cocky, or a questionable leader or that he has “hit his ceiling.” Being cocky isn’t a bad thing, the last great Bills quarterback, a guy named Jim Kelly, was fairly cocky too. The leadership thing seems off too, in fact a lot of it seems made up by guys like ESPN’s Todd McShay. I trust that Buddy Nix and crew will trust what Clausen’s Notre Dame teammates and coaches say over something a phony scout says. I also find it very hard to believe that someone who is 22 has “reached their ceiling.” That just makes no sense to me. He does have some legitimate flaws in his game (footwork, pocket presence, too much touch on the deep ball), but that’s why good coaching is so vital to a young quarterback. Hopefully, the Bills have the proper coaching to teach their new young gun.

Some Bills fans don’t like the guy simply because he’s goofy looking. Now that’s something I could care less about. Whether he looks like Jeff Spicoli or an angry ostrich it’s irrelevant. Actually, I can see it playing out as Clausen being the guy that Patriot, Dolphin and Jets fans hate. I want him to be the guy who they constantly want to punch in the face or always say, “oh, he’s not that good, he’s just overrated.” Because isn’t that what fans say of other great players? If he’s on one of your division rivals, you either hate him with a passion or you make excuses why he always beats your team. Do you know how many times I’ve heard someone say that Tom Brady or Sidney Crosby is overrated, or just a product of the system? Just trust me, this is a subject I’m all too familiar with. I just want some of these guys on one of my favorite teams. Hopefully, Clausen will be that “overrated, lucky” guy for the Bills. But, how will we get to that point?

Bradford will most likely be picked first. I could see Clausen eventually being better than him , but I can also see Bradford turning out like another recent Oklahoma offensive star with injury concerns, Adrian Peterson. Playing in a dome and a weak division, I think there’s a good chance of success for Bradford and he would be a good, but expensive pick-up for the Rams. A couple months ago, I thought Clausen would never make it to Buffalo’s pick. Washington and Seattle seemed like certainties to select the Irish star. But these teams gave up a lot (from a draft and financial standpoint) in Don McNabb (who I really wanted to see in a Bills uniform) and Charlie Whitehurst, respectfully. That leaves Cleveland, Oakland as threats or a team like the 49ers leapfrogging Buffalo. I wouldn’t be upset if Buffalo moved up a few spots to ensure they get their quarterback.

Now, with the past Bills regime, I couldn’t trust them not to screw up the draft. I’ll give Buddy Nix, Chan Gailey and crew the benefit of the doubt here, but if they have a chance to select a franchise quarterback and pass… let’s just say I’ll have a new hole in my wall. I know a lot of people are saying they need a left tackle at nine and then simply select Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow in the second round. I agree that the Bills have a desperate need for a left tackle and I see the McCoy/Drew Brees comparisons, but there are a few problems with that strategy. A number of the teams picking in front of Buffalo will also be looking at left tackles and with no truly elite players at that position can the Bills really afford to take the 4th best tackle prospect with the ninth pick just to fill a need. And there’s no way that Tebow and McCoy are still there for the Bills 41st overall, second round pick (too many teams have a QB need and these are two of the most high-profile college players in recent memory). So the Bills would have to trade back to the first round or early second round (like the 33rd overall pick, also where Drew Brees was selected). That would cost a lot (more then moving up from nine to say, six) and the Bills have so many holes to fill they can’t give up that many picks for someone like Tebow, who could be a long-term project (albeit with superstar potential).

The most frustrating thing I’ve heard from fellow Bills fans is to not select a quarterback this year, build up the rest of the team, and then draft Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett next year. This strategy is so asinine it makes my head hurt. First off, you can’t pass on a franchise QB. The Rams have done this the past few years, they’ve taken the “safe, can’t-miss” prospects like Chris Long and Jason Smith and passed on “risks” like Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez. By the way, the Rams have won six games, total, the past three years. Awful. And Bills fans want to replicate the Rams strategy? Plus, these supposedly safe picks are just as risky as a quarterback. Also, as bad as the Bills have bad this past decade, they’re not on the level of the Lions, Rams, Raiders. Those teams have consistently picked in the top three picks while the Bills manage to win just enough to select in the 9-15 range and miss out on top passing prospects (or they reach on a guy like J.P. Losman and then pass on guys like Jay Cutler because they have Losman, ugh). So they have no guarantee to pick the top guy next year and they certainly don’t know if these guys will be better than someone like Clausen, or even McCoy.

Buddy Nix has been part of some stellar drafts in San Diego (including picking Brees, Tomlinson and Rivers), so I can only hope that he had more influence on those drafts then we think and that he’s an exceptional judge of quarterback talent. I wasn’t thrilled with him being named GM (I’m a little skeptical about a previously retired 70-year old just now getting his first GM gig), but I’ll give the guy a chance. I was pissed when I heard they hired Chan Gailey as head coach, I absolutely hated that move and it makes me nervous that there are reports that state he wants an athletic QB in the middle rounds of the draft (like Jarrett Brown). There’s even a report from Mike Lombardi (from National Football Post, and a guy who I thought the Bills should have considered for GM) that Gailey passed on Brees in Miami because they already had Ray Lucas. Yikes. So, I do have a nagging feeling that they’ll screw up this draft or take the St. Louis Ram approach, but then again, those guys know way, way, way more about football than I do, so I’ll trust them for now.

We know this; it should be an exciting draft with plenty of stars (Suh, Berry, Spiller, etc.) and some bad teams are going to make that move to jump out of the NFL’s cellar, hopefully New York state’s only team is one of them. It’s time for the Bills to circle the wagon and get their franchise quarterback. And maybe the next time someone uses an analogy from Kick-Ass to describe Buffalo, they’ll be comparing the Bills to Hit-Girl.