2010 NFL Preview Part 2

Riding the Pine – 2010 NFL Preview, Pt. 2
Predictions

Before I started this year’s preview, I took at look at some of my previous prognostications. Last year, I was solid in my picks. I had Drew Brees as league MVP, he didn’t win but was (of course) Super Bowl MVP. I was a year early on the Ravens bandwagon, picking them as Super Bowl runner-up to Giants (they started great, but missed the playoffs). I had the Cowboys last in the NFC East (hey, it’s a tough division to pick correctly) and the Jets last in the AFC East (although, my write-up on them was fairly accurate).

I was also a little early on the Packers bandwagon and I made an awesome reference to the Batman villain Bookworm (played by Michael Emerson in Christopher Nolan’s Dark Knight Follow-up?). Oh, I also totally nailed the fact that the Rams would suck.

AFC East
1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Bills
4. Dolphins

This division is a victim of groupthink. One person in the media got it in their head that this division has three Super Bowl contenders and the worst team in the league and that idea spread like a zombie plague. Of course, that means it utilizes brain dead and ignores logic.

All four of these teams have flaws, the Bills have been exaggerated and the others have been ignored. The Patriots are still the team to beat in my mind because they have the same coach and quarterback as they have for the past ten years, the same combo that won them a lot of games. They’re far from those championship teams and have a questionable defense, but they have enough firepower to win the division.

The Jets follow that cliché that if enough people buy into a lie (or in this case a misconception), then eventually it’ll be known as truth. That notion is that the Jets are the most talented team in the league and a major Super Bowl contender. They aren’t. I like some moves they made, but Sanchez was brutal last year in the regular season. They let some of their top offensive talent go (Thomas Jones in particular) and signed some “big-name, star-power” players that have the people in New Jersey (and HBO) excited. But those guys (Tomlinson and Taylor) are not in their primes, far from it. HBO shows the Vince Lombardi trophy during the Hard Knocks title sequence, the narrator calls Mark Sanchez a superstar and Rex Ryan says they’re the “best fucking team in football,” and people buy into. I could go on about this, but honestly thinking about the Jets throws my psyche into a Hulk-like state, so I’ll stop.

While the Jets and Patriots will fight at the top of the division, the Bills and Dolphins will battle at the bottom. Like everyone else, I initially had the Bills finishing last (hey, I’m trying to have realistic expectations this year). The Dolphins did pick up two great players in the offseason (Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby), in fact, they’re the only team in the division that I can see finishing at anywhere in the division standings. The reason I have them last is because I think they’ll get off to a slow start (their schedule is not kind) and never recover. This includes losing the opener to Buffalo.

Speaking of which, why does everyone think the Phins are world-beaters and the Bills are a 2-14 team (seriously Sports Illustrated, ESPN, CBS Sportssline? Come on!). Last year the Bills and Dolphins split the season series, Miami went 7-9, Buffalo 6-10. The Bills rid themselves of the coaching equivalent of Glenn Beck, a conservative idiot (actually, sorry Dick Jauron, you seem like a nice guy and you’re probably smarting than me, so sorry about that). But speaking of horrible people, Bill Parcells stepped down from his previous role which means that Jeff Ireland – the guy who while conducting a job interview asked someone if there mother was a prostitute- will be the new “mastermind” in South Beach.

So, with every sports media outlet ripping on my favorite team I couldn’t pile on, they’ll still be frustrating and definitely still need a new quarterback. But come on, Chad Henne is no superstar either.

So screw it, I’m not conforming to this groupthink. Bills avoid last place, Jets miss playoffs, Pats exit in first round of playoffs and the people in Miami will only be focused on the Heat come October.

AFC North
1. Ravens
2. Bengals
3. Steelers
4. Browns

I won’t be shocked if the Ravens don’t win this division, but they have momentarily passed the Steelers as the marquee team in the North. Blame Ben Roethlisberger. (By the way, every time I hear his name I now immediately think of the first line in Eminem’s “Almost Famous” – one of the best tracks of the year so far).

I kind of feel bad for Peter King, he’s a great reporter and one of my favorite NFL guys to read, but since he’s a top guy he’s required to make picks. He’s awful at this, but of course, everyone is. But guys like him get ripped by crazy fans, I mean I was fuming pretty good when I saw his 2-14 guess for the Bills. He picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl and that is not good news for Pittsburgh fans.

After his year stint in Buffalo, I see Terrell Owens in a different light. He really is treated pretty unfairly by the media and I thought he stayed pretty classy in what was a pretty poor position with the Bills. I think he should have a solid year in Cincy (I hope so, he’s on the bench for my fantasy team the Unicorns of Death). The worry about the Bengals (besides the whole legal troubles, clashing personalities thing) is Carson Palmer. He’s still better than a lot of passers, but he seems like he may never be at the level he was before his injury. Even discounting that, there’s just something about the Bengals that I don’t trust and their back-to-back horrible losses to the Jets last year compound that bad feeling.

There’s no denying that Joshua Cribbs is the man and… oh wait, he just decided to take his talents to South Beach. Bummer.

(Sorry. As someone who roots for the Bills and Sabres I should be above poking fun at other fans’ misfortune. But think of it this way, I’m really making fun of LeBron James. (Screw) him! Go Cavs!)

AFC South
1. Colts
2. Titans
3. Texans
4. Jaguars

Where exactly is that hot tub time machine located? I think I’m going to use it to convince Ralph Wilson to never, NEVER let Bill Polian go. Now, the Colts have even locked up Polian’s son. They have Peyton Manning too. My expert take on Manning: he’s good at playing football.

The Texans will make the playoffs at some point, probably this year, but I’ve they’ve burned their bandwagon jumpers too many times for me to hop on. Having said that, they’ll definitely make the playoffs next year…

Vince Young and Chris Johnson make are a solid duo and Jeff Fisher is one of the most underrated coaches in the league. They’re not a title contender but don’t be surprised if they are a playoff team.

Will anyone else be surprised if Jags coach Shooter McGavin is fired at the end of the year? Oh well, at least they have Tyson Alualu!

AFC West
1. Chargers
2. Raiders
3. Chiefs
4. Broncos

The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos will all be close together in the standings, the drama will be akin to The Celebrity Apprentice (no one will care). Jason Campbell has had horrible luck in his career and being with the Raiders doesn’t change that. Still, I’m glad the Bills didn’t trade for him; he’s very similar to Trent Edwards and I can’t ever see him starting on a championship team. I can see Philip Rivers starting on a champion, but Norv Turner coaching a team to the ultimate ticker-tape parade? Nope.

I like the young playmakers on the Chiefs (this is my debut fantasy season and Jamaal Charles is on my squad. Dexter McCluster is a potential steal as well). I just don’t trust Cassel and they’ve missed a little too often on early draft picks.

The Raiders will be improved, but people are going a little crazy with this Jason Campbell/savior thing. He was the leader of a 4-12 team, he’s basically the same player as Trent Edwards (not a good thing).

Since Josh McDaniels became the man in Denver they’ve made some puzzling move. Maybe a few years from now the Tebow pick will be proven as a brilliant move and the former Gator will help people forget the front office’s other gaffes… but for now the Broncos will be at (or near) the bottom of the division.

NFC East
1. Cowboys
2. Giants
3. Redskins
4. Eagles

The Cowboys hype really is insufferable. Every year they’re pick to win the Super Bowl really for no reason, beside the fact that they have stars on their helmets. I’m picking them to be first in the division, but that’s mainly because these teams are so evenly matched and I’m just going with the fact that usually teams I hate have a lot of success.

I don’t know what to make of the Giants, they played like a team that didn’t care at the end of last year. I think they’ll be back in the playoffs this year though. Eli is no Peyton, but that’s OK, he’s still very good.

My feeling on the Eagles is that they’re going to miss McNabb now that he’s gone. They won’t really regret getting rid of him because it was probably the right choice to see what they have in Kevin Kolb, still, the chances that he’ll become another Aaron Rodgers seems unlikely. Remember, Kolb is from the 2007 draft class, the same class that produced JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, John Beck (my favorite Dolphin of all time), Trent Edwards and a bunch of other guys who suck. Just saying…

I wanted the Bills to get both McNabb and Shanahan. They both went to Washington. Screw them.

NFC North
1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears

I had the Packers pegged as a Super Bowl team months before writing this. At some point the passed the Saints as the best team in the NFC (in perception, not reality that is). Aaron Rodgers, if he stays healthy will have MVP numbers, and yes, it pisses me off that the Bills still haven’t found someone to replace Jim Kelly yet Green Bay somehow found Favre 2.0. Essentially, Rodgers is like the Packers Curb Your Enthusiasm.

The Vikings seem like they’re poised to slip a little, but they aren’t going to ship the division title belt over to Green Bay without an epic fight. Pack vs. Vikes is definitely must-see football.

The Lions have some key building blocks on their road to recovery – Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Ndamukong Suh and most importantly, Matthew Stafford. If Stafford ends up as a bust, well, I don’t think Lions fans want to think about that prospect. Personally, I don’t think he’ll be a bust, just a lesser version of Drew Bledsoe (Hey, Bledsoe was pretty good during his peak).

I just have a bad feeling about the Bears, but hey, at least their quarterback doesn’t have a Justin Bieber haircut…

NFC South
1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers

I flirted with the idea of putting the Falcons on top of the division solely because the NFC South has been wildly unpredictable. I can’t find a great reason why the Saints wouldn’t top the South, yet I said the same thing about last year’s defending Super Bowl champion (the Steelers finished third in the AFC North in 2009).

I wanted the Bills to draft Jimmy Clausen and he could be real good for the Panthers, the main reason why he might not is because of Matt Moore. I could see Moore quietly having a stellar season and helping turn the Panthers back into a dangerous opponent for other teams. I see some similarities between Moore and Romo, of course having to play the Saints and Falcons twice each is a tough task. I included the Falcons in there because they could surprise some people this year.

Tampa Bay is my pick for the number one overall pick. I can’t really specify exactly why (I don’t watch much Buc ball, so they could surprise me), I just don’t like their roster, Josh Freeman’s accuracy reminds me of J.P. Losman and this will keep to my theme of Florida teams finishing in last place.

NFC West
1. 49ers
2. Seahawks
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

Patrick Willis will have a Darrelle Revis-like boost to superstardom this year and the Niners will win pretty much win this division by default. You got to love Mike Singletary as a coach, but at the same time I can’t see them getting past the first round with Alex Smith at QB (I know he supposedly had a resurgent season last year, but I’ve seen that from other failed QBs too).

The Cardinals lost too much talent at key spots to be a serious playoff contender (Kurt Warner, Karlos Dansby, Anquan Boldin) and they’re basically going to have to hope Max Hall is the next Warner to have any success in the near future.

The major question in Seattle is, what week will it be before fans are starting websites like gobacktousc.com and firecarroll.org. I’m saying he goes strong until Week 11.

And the Rams… they’ve won six games the last three years and lost 1,458 (I didn’t look up that number, but seems about right). The bright side? I feel there’s a really Rams-based good drinking game waiting to be created, cease the day Ram fans!

MVP
Aaron Rodgers

I started the Rodgers for MVP bandwagon, I swear.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
C.J. Spiller

Ryan Matthews and Jahvid Best are solid bets too, but I got to be a homer hear and pick Spiller. He’s going to become a superstar and make Bills games exciting again. Even in preseason you could hear the home crowd’s excitement every time he touched the ball. I’ve always been a fan of running backs and especially speedy, highlight reel players, I’m beyond pumped that the Bills finally have one. Seriously, I’m guessing Spiller will be on the cover of Madden 14. (Right after him and Andrew Luck lead the Bills to a shocking Super Bowl victory?)

Defensive Rookie of the Year
Brandon Graham

It’ll be close between Graham and Suh, the former Michigan star will win because he’ll wreak some havoc on quarterback in Philadelphia’s system.

Super Bowl
Colts vs. Packers…. Wait, no, that’s too easy. I had the Packers pegged as a Super Bowl team since the season ended but now the trendy pick. That never works out. For the past few years, the pattern has been a mainstay franchise in the AFC and a surprise in the NFC. So..

Colts vs. Falcons

The year of Matt Ryan! Almost. He has a monster postseason, people start picking the Falcons to upset the Colts just to be different. But we’re do for a vengeance season from a Super Bowl loser. This time the Colts don’t let an NFC South surprise wrestle the championship away from them.

Super Bowl Champion: Colts

P.S. Isn’t it great to have football back?

The Riding the Pine 2010 NFL Preview, Part I: State of the Bills Address

I started playing Words with Friends (Scrabble) about a week ago. It’s definitely addicting … it’s also unbelievably frustrating at times. It’s not hard to figure out where I’ve had that feeling before.

For the past decade, the Buffalo Bills have not been epically bad; they rarely got to that Detroit Lions-level of ineptitude. And that’s one of the more frustrating parts. Since they’ve been stuck in an abyss of mediocrity they haven’t gotten a shot at a truly elite quarterback prospect. (Note: they did have the number four overall pick in 2002. “Starter for the next ten years at tackle” Mike Williams was the pick. Yeah…) (Note II: I don’t want them to be bad just to get a good draft pick, which would be ridiculous. I’m just pointing out that if your team does happen to stink at the right time it could great benefit them, particularly if they get someone like, say, Peyton Manning.) Plus, there’s always just enough hope that the Bills will be the surprise team of the year and end that playoff drought, or find their version of Kurt Warner.

Soon, you realize it’s not going to happen. And that sucks. So, what is it, bad luck? Horrible ownership? A curse? All of the above?

Luck is certainly part of it, but it’s easy to blame bad luck. Just like when I lose in Words with Friends because my opponent scored 35 points of the word “qat” (sounds made up, in fact even my Word spellchecker thinks it’s made up) or the computer gives me all consonants, my initial reaction is to call shenanigans. We’re always quick to blame outside factors, refs especially, are a constant target of mine. That’s too easy though, luck is important to success but so is hiring talented people to run your team. I don’t feel the Bills have taken a proactive, win-at-all-costs approach to their business lately. It’s shown.

I mean, even I started using “qat” against my opponents.

You don’t want to rely too heavily on mirroring another team’s success, but it can’t hurt to take a peek at the blueprint. The Bills, Ralph Wilson in particular, seem content on doing their own thing. Hire a retired, 70-year old rookie GM, why not? Ignore the tackle and quarterback positions? Sure. The teams that have turned around their franchises quickly (I’m thinking of Miami and Atlanta primarily) took similar approaches to each other and pretty much the opposite approach as Buffalo.

Miami and Atlanta did go in different directions regarding their general manager picks, though both worked out and both drew off the concept of hiring someone from a successful environment. The Dolphins snagged Bill Parcells (a move the Bills couldn’t make if they tried. Which they probably wouldn’t try). The Falcons picked a promising talent from a winning franchise, Thomas Dimitroff, formerly of New England. This is what I was hoping the Bills would do (although, to be fair, I’ll definitely give Buddy Nix a shot, and bringing former Steeler Doug Whaley into the mix looks to be a solid move as well). They also drafted franchise players (Jake Long and Matt Ryan). Of course, that again brings me back to the point that the Bills haven’t been bad enough to warrant a draft pick that can get them a talent like Ryan or Long. Still, they’ve pretty much ignored those two positions, I mean, there has to be some way to improve them, right?

The Jets got the quarterback they wanted by ripping off a stupid team. I wish the Bills would make more trades simply because if you go after the incompetent GM’s you can really help yourselves out. For instance, the Jets trading from the 17th overall pick to the 5th to get Sanchez and did this without having to give up the next year’s first round pick. They just traded the Browns a bunch of backups and scrubs that Eric Mangini liked (horrible). I fear though that the problem is this: the Bills are one of those stupid teams. They’re more likely to get ripped off than to take advantage of another team’s moronic tendencies. A look at their recent drafts really lends creditability to the “stupid team” theory.

Before the 2010 draft, I wrote a column campaigning for the Bills to select Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen. To my delight, Clausen was available with the number nine overall pick (remember, leading up to the draft, this was very much in doubt). The Bills practically sprinted to the podium and I thought, “Yes, we have our quarterback.” But I was also reading the ESPN live draft chat as I was watching. The guy on there had been announcing the picks before they were actually made… he said the Bills were picking Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, the top rated running back. I was not happy. Like a lot of Bills fans I scoffed at this pick because they simply did not need another running back.

Needless to say, by the time the second round was ready to start the next day, I had watched enough Spiller YouTube highlights to get excited. Now, at this point, I believe it’s going to turn out to be a great pick. Spiller looks like a future superstar, he certainly could turn into one of the most exciting players in the league and a future Madden-cover candidate (well, you know, if it weren’t for the “No Bills allowed” rule).

I’ll have more on Spiller later in part II, but for all the potential he has, I still have this irksome feeling that the Bills missed a great opportunity in the draft. After Clausen slipped out of the first round, I desperately wanted the Bills to trade up and get their franchise guy. Spiller and Clausen would be the future of offense in Buffalo and a great start to getting this team back to the Super Bowl. When both Clausen and Colt McCoy fell to the second round I couldn’t believe it, finally some luck for the Bills. And then…

The Bills selected Torrell Troup. I couldn’t (and still can't) shake that nagging feeling that the Bills just made one of the moves that you look back on and say, “Oh, we could have had (whoever).” Like picking Mike Williams over Dwight Freeney, Donte Whitner over Haloti Ngata, Marshawn Lynch over Darrelle Revis, you get the point, there’s a lot of them. I know the Bills needed a nose tackle and the P.R. people at Buffalo tell me he’s going to be very good, and he better be. They need him to be a Pro Bowler. By the time the third round rolled along, I knew they weren’t picking a quarterback. Colt McCoy was there, but obviously he, nor any passer in this draft, were thought of as franchise guys by the Bills’ brass.

I realize that Buddy Nix knows way more about football than myself. I mean, I would have taken a guy who lasted until pick 48 over the electric Spiller. As a scout, Nix has that he has a keen eye for talent, but still, why completely ignore the quarterback position? And the left tackle position? The Edwards/Bell combination does not inspire confidence from Bills nation.

Not to mention, waiting until next year to get your quarterback seems very risky (might I add, a strategy that many Bills fans actually wanted). I’m not that confident that they will pick the right guy. We can pray that Brian Brohm suddenly looks like the Louisville All-Star or that Levi Brown is a Tom Brady, Kurt Warner or even Tony Romo type steal. I just can’t buy into the fact that Trent Edwards is the answer. Obviously, I’d love to see him become that franchise guy that Buffalo desperately craves, I would just be shocked if it actually happens.

What about next year’s draft? People are already talking about Locker, Mallett, Ponder, Luck, etc. I’ll try to pay attention to these guys throughout the year because one them should end up as the Bills future passer/savior. Personally, I prefer Andrew Luck just because of his awesome name. Think about it, what great quarterback didn’t have an awesome name? The name is very important, plus I can already envision this lede a couple years from now:

All it took for the Buffalo Bills to finally win the Super Bowl was a little Luck.

Andrew Luck led Buffalo with …. (blah, blah, whatever, I’ll be to drunk and my eyes will be too blurry with tears to read the rest, but I think you get my point).

My only other suggestion for the Bills is something I tweeted a couple weeks ago: hire the guys from Inception. If you could plant ideas in Bill Polian’s head to trade Peyton Manning for Trent Edwards or go into Rex Ryan’s dreams and convince him to become a mime, you’d have to do it. But the more I thought about it, this would be considered cheating and in that case Bill Belichick would have already tried it.

Predictions coming in Part II.


Photo credit: Mike Groll The Associated Press

Time to circle the wagons

There’s a scene in Kick-Ass (which if you haven’t seen it, you should because it’s awesome) that reminded me of the Buffalo Bills. More specifically what it has felt like to root for them for this past decade.

The scene is Kick-Ass’ first fight (small spoiler here, by the way), it’s against those two thugs in the parking lot. Those same guys harassed the non-costumed Kick-Ass and his friend earlier and stole their wallets. Let’s say for this analogy the two criminals are, I don’t know, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and Kick-Ass is the Bills. The audience represents Bills fans.

They start fighting and you might be thinking that the crazy underdog in the funny looking costume might actually win. He has his batons, he looks surprising skilled and might be on the verge of kicking some ass. And right when you start thinking this, one of the thugs (Belichick) pulls a knife and stabs him in the stomach. A cheap tactic for sure, but it doesn’t matter, the fight’s over. The would-be carjackers run away and our hero is left there bleeding freely from his wound. Bills fans are thinking this bad, this can’t get worse…. and then he gets ran over by a car.

And that’s where we are as Bills fans, the team we root for is a seemingly impossible, bloody mess that desperately needs to be fixed up and made stronger. They need a heavy dose of adamantium in their bones. That process starts with this year’s draft. This has to be the turning point, the time when this team gets an identity. And the only way to do that is to get a franchise quarterback.

I’ve heard that this is one of the strongest overall drafts that we’ve seen in a while, but that the quarterback class is a weak spot. I’m no scout (obviously), yet I think it’s vital that the Bills get one of the top four QB’s in the draft (Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow). I actually like this class and think all these guys have Pro Bowl potential (for more, you should definitely check out ESPN’s excellent feature, QB Camp with Jon Gruden).

The guy I really want to see the Bills draft is the former Notre Dame star, Clausen. He’s got a strong, but far from elite arm, but more importantly he’s a very accurate passer. He completed 68% of his passes last year, played through a tough toe injury and from what I’ve read, he was deadly in clutch scenarios. So to recap, excellent accurate, tough, plays well under pressure and possibly ready to start immediately.

The negatives that people list seem mostly superficial. These supposed flaws are that he’s cocky, or a questionable leader or that he has “hit his ceiling.” Being cocky isn’t a bad thing, the last great Bills quarterback, a guy named Jim Kelly, was fairly cocky too. The leadership thing seems off too, in fact a lot of it seems made up by guys like ESPN’s Todd McShay. I trust that Buddy Nix and crew will trust what Clausen’s Notre Dame teammates and coaches say over something a phony scout says. I also find it very hard to believe that someone who is 22 has “reached their ceiling.” That just makes no sense to me. He does have some legitimate flaws in his game (footwork, pocket presence, too much touch on the deep ball), but that’s why good coaching is so vital to a young quarterback. Hopefully, the Bills have the proper coaching to teach their new young gun.

Some Bills fans don’t like the guy simply because he’s goofy looking. Now that’s something I could care less about. Whether he looks like Jeff Spicoli or an angry ostrich it’s irrelevant. Actually, I can see it playing out as Clausen being the guy that Patriot, Dolphin and Jets fans hate. I want him to be the guy who they constantly want to punch in the face or always say, “oh, he’s not that good, he’s just overrated.” Because isn’t that what fans say of other great players? If he’s on one of your division rivals, you either hate him with a passion or you make excuses why he always beats your team. Do you know how many times I’ve heard someone say that Tom Brady or Sidney Crosby is overrated, or just a product of the system? Just trust me, this is a subject I’m all too familiar with. I just want some of these guys on one of my favorite teams. Hopefully, Clausen will be that “overrated, lucky” guy for the Bills. But, how will we get to that point?

Bradford will most likely be picked first. I could see Clausen eventually being better than him , but I can also see Bradford turning out like another recent Oklahoma offensive star with injury concerns, Adrian Peterson. Playing in a dome and a weak division, I think there’s a good chance of success for Bradford and he would be a good, but expensive pick-up for the Rams. A couple months ago, I thought Clausen would never make it to Buffalo’s pick. Washington and Seattle seemed like certainties to select the Irish star. But these teams gave up a lot (from a draft and financial standpoint) in Don McNabb (who I really wanted to see in a Bills uniform) and Charlie Whitehurst, respectfully. That leaves Cleveland, Oakland as threats or a team like the 49ers leapfrogging Buffalo. I wouldn’t be upset if Buffalo moved up a few spots to ensure they get their quarterback.

Now, with the past Bills regime, I couldn’t trust them not to screw up the draft. I’ll give Buddy Nix, Chan Gailey and crew the benefit of the doubt here, but if they have a chance to select a franchise quarterback and pass… let’s just say I’ll have a new hole in my wall. I know a lot of people are saying they need a left tackle at nine and then simply select Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow in the second round. I agree that the Bills have a desperate need for a left tackle and I see the McCoy/Drew Brees comparisons, but there are a few problems with that strategy. A number of the teams picking in front of Buffalo will also be looking at left tackles and with no truly elite players at that position can the Bills really afford to take the 4th best tackle prospect with the ninth pick just to fill a need. And there’s no way that Tebow and McCoy are still there for the Bills 41st overall, second round pick (too many teams have a QB need and these are two of the most high-profile college players in recent memory). So the Bills would have to trade back to the first round or early second round (like the 33rd overall pick, also where Drew Brees was selected). That would cost a lot (more then moving up from nine to say, six) and the Bills have so many holes to fill they can’t give up that many picks for someone like Tebow, who could be a long-term project (albeit with superstar potential).

The most frustrating thing I’ve heard from fellow Bills fans is to not select a quarterback this year, build up the rest of the team, and then draft Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett next year. This strategy is so asinine it makes my head hurt. First off, you can’t pass on a franchise QB. The Rams have done this the past few years, they’ve taken the “safe, can’t-miss” prospects like Chris Long and Jason Smith and passed on “risks” like Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez. By the way, the Rams have won six games, total, the past three years. Awful. And Bills fans want to replicate the Rams strategy? Plus, these supposedly safe picks are just as risky as a quarterback. Also, as bad as the Bills have bad this past decade, they’re not on the level of the Lions, Rams, Raiders. Those teams have consistently picked in the top three picks while the Bills manage to win just enough to select in the 9-15 range and miss out on top passing prospects (or they reach on a guy like J.P. Losman and then pass on guys like Jay Cutler because they have Losman, ugh). So they have no guarantee to pick the top guy next year and they certainly don’t know if these guys will be better than someone like Clausen, or even McCoy.

Buddy Nix has been part of some stellar drafts in San Diego (including picking Brees, Tomlinson and Rivers), so I can only hope that he had more influence on those drafts then we think and that he’s an exceptional judge of quarterback talent. I wasn’t thrilled with him being named GM (I’m a little skeptical about a previously retired 70-year old just now getting his first GM gig), but I’ll give the guy a chance. I was pissed when I heard they hired Chan Gailey as head coach, I absolutely hated that move and it makes me nervous that there are reports that state he wants an athletic QB in the middle rounds of the draft (like Jarrett Brown). There’s even a report from Mike Lombardi (from National Football Post, and a guy who I thought the Bills should have considered for GM) that Gailey passed on Brees in Miami because they already had Ray Lucas. Yikes. So, I do have a nagging feeling that they’ll screw up this draft or take the St. Louis Ram approach, but then again, those guys know way, way, way more about football than I do, so I’ll trust them for now.

We know this; it should be an exciting draft with plenty of stars (Suh, Berry, Spiller, etc.) and some bad teams are going to make that move to jump out of the NFL’s cellar, hopefully New York state’s only team is one of them. It’s time for the Bills to circle the wagon and get their franchise quarterback. And maybe the next time someone uses an analogy from Kick-Ass to describe Buffalo, they’ll be comparing the Bills to Hit-Girl.

Rochester Red Wings: A Guide to Opening Day

Note: This article is (a slightly modified, longer version) from the April 15 of the insider, so pick one up or visit: http://rochester.metromix.com




Baseball is back and so are the Rochester Red Wings. The home opener is April 17 and if you’re considering going but lack the proper baseball knowledge,
here’s a guide of things-to-know about Frontier Field, along with some insider Red Wings knowledge to impress your friends (or date) in-between innings.

The Stadium
For the most part, all fans that go to a game share a similar goal: to see their team win… and to catch a foul ball.

The grass berm area (lawn areas below the stands) on both the first-base and third-base side is one of the better spots to get that elusive foul ball, says General Manager Dan Mason. So, what are some tips to successfully nab one of these foul balls? “Definitely bring a glove and a hat, just in case it’s sunny,” Mason says. “A lot of people don’t pay attention, they may still end up with a foul ball because it ended up in their lap or food or something. But if you’re paying attention, you’re going to know where (the ball) is going.”

He adds that the berms and the seats next to the dugouts – specifically the Red Wings’ dugout – are some of the most sought after seats. There is also a fan zone couch section in the outfield (the “couch potato,” $55 for five tickets but sold-out for the opener) and the Patio Enclosures Power Alley Grille at the 385-foot mark in right-center field – the same spot where the Frontier Field hot tub used to sit (rental is $1650 for 40 tickets and all-you-can-eat food package).

The Red Wings will continue another beloved baseball tradition this year as well – free giveaways. “For opening day, we’re doing a cowbell giveaway,” says Director of Promotions Matt Cipro. “Always on opening day we giveaway something that encourages the fans to cheer, get loud and support the team. We find that the cowbells come back game after game.” And yes, the popular Will Ferrell/cowbell Saturday Night Live clip will be displayed on the scoreboard.

Other summer promotions include, magnetic schedule giveaways, fleece blankets, baseball caps and gloves for kids, baseball cards, t-shirts, backpacks, fireworks every Friday and Saturday night, appearances by former players and a pre-game autograph tent.

Behind-the-scene MVP’s
Dave McAlpin, 25, teaches Physical Education at Monroe #1 BOCES during the day, but at night (and during the summer) he has an alter ego. He’s not a superhero, but he’s involved in one of sports most beloved and fan-friendly aspects – the mascot.

“It’s interesting having the suit on because everyone you see has some sort of reaction to you and you need to react to them as well,” he says about becoming the Wings’ mascot Spikes. McAlpin has some advice for the aspiring mascots out there too: “I always make sure to drink plenty of water before, during and after the game. You sweat a whole lot in the suit and if you don’t stay hydrated you start to feel a little woozy.”

Spikes does have help though. Amanda Prosser, 25, is the woman behind his sidekick, Mittsy. “Maybe I’ll have a bad day or be tired or stressed, but then I put the suit on and I’m automatically in a better mood,” she says. “People are smiling and laughing and it makes me feel better.”

This is McAlpin’s seventh season as the Wings male mascot and Prosser’s sixth as Mittsy. They’ve known each other since high school and have a good report with each other, but is there room for more in the Wings’ mascot family?

“Well, we haven’t really developed a relationship between (Spikes and Mittsy). Right now they’re just friends,” says Cipro, but he does offer up a teaser. “There will be a sort of mascot-related, player-related surprise on opening night. Something (fans) have seen around baseball, but never hear in Rochester.”

One thing that Rochester (and Buffalo) fans have seen many times is a certain vendor who sells beer, peanuts, popcorn and pixie sticks. His name is Tom Girot, and he’s better known as the “conehead.”

“Conehead is our most recognizable vendor,” says Mason. “He has quite a following among our fans.” Girot explains that his legendary run began as a simple Halloween purchase.

“I started wearing it in 1978. It was the first year I was married and the Coneheads were popular on Saturday Night Live. My wife bought a conehead and wore it to work and they ended up on the news. It was Halloween time and there was a Bills game that Sunday so I decided to wear it to the game,” Girot says. “I was kind of upset that she spent $20 on a piece of junk and I figured, ‘well, I better get some kind of use out of this’ and over the years I certainly have.”

Girot doesn’t do a Dan Aykroyd impression but he does offer up the Conehead guarantee, “Get a warm beer from me you drink it for free.”

Aside from the comforting yell of the vendors, another familiar Frontier Field sound is that of organist Fred Costello. He’s turned down five major-league teams – including the Yankees and Mets – to stay with the Wings (he also occasionally plays for the Buffalo Sabres).

Costello, McAlpin, Prosser and Girot all certainly play the part of the unsung heroes for the fans at the ballpark, but the players have their own unsung hero; Dr. Michael Mayer – the team dentist.

“Many of (the players) aren’t from this area and don’t have a dentist locally. They’re here from April to September and a lot of them have needs that need to be taken care of,” says Mayer. “We’ve had to deal with chipped teeth and lost fillings through the habits of chewing (sunflower) seeds and gum. We do some teeth whitening too because a lot of these guys are on baseball cards or other photos and they want their teeth to look nice and white.”

Refreshments
The assortment of food and beverages at the stadium aren’t exactly a dentist’s dream, but there’s something for every other fan. In the concourse area is ‘Sup Dog – a variety of hot dogs including the plate dog (think garbage plate) and the DiMaggio dog (peppers, onions and home fries). There’s also pizza, burgers, pulled pork, cheesesteaks, nachos, subs, wraps, fish, ice cream, a Red Osier stand and an allergen (gluten, dairy, nut) free stand called “Free.”

To quench your thirst there’s water, soda, coffee and beer (including the exclusive Rohrbach-brewed Red Wing “Red” Ale, Labatt, Bud and Genny). The Wings also have their own bar located in the stadium, The 10th Inning Bar, located at the end of the concourse. It includes, flat-screen TV’s and is also in a spot where you can just walk around the corner and still see the action in the Wings game. “It stays open – depending on the night- a half-hour to an hour after the game,” Cipro says.

Date Night
Taking a date to a ballgame is a nice alternative to being stuck in a movie theater or restaurant, especially when the weather is nice. Here’s a few things-to-know about a Red Wings date night (and how to avoid any Bill Buckner-type errors).

The grass berms are perfect for a picnic date. If you’re at the berm on the third-base side just remember to avoid the jokes at the expense of the “nut-free” zone signs (they’re for people with peanut allergies). Be alert for those foul balls too, your night will be over quickly if your date has the stitching from a baseball tattooed to his/her forehead. However, retrieving a foul ball for your date could be a romantic gesture. Tip: although it may seem like a good idea at first, beating up the little-league crowd to retrieve said foul ball is not romantic.

Frontier Field doesn’t have a kiss-cam, and that’s good news for your date. This will help avoid that whole awkward situation of having your first kiss be a clash of beer breath and relish mouth in front of 10,000 people. They do have a smile-cam, however. That’s manageable (as long as you’re careful with the mustard that is).

There’s plenty of time for conversation at a baseball date too. Sprinkling in the occasional baseball facts or Red Wings tidbits is good conversation fodder, but if you start debating the merits of a player’s on-base percentage versus slugging percentage then you might be losing your date. (Unless he/she is in several fantasy leagues…) The seventh-inning stretch is a good time to check out the Frontier Field bar (The 10th Inning) and buy your date a drink. If things are going well, a blowout (in favor of the Wings of course) can be your ally. You’ll have a valid reason to leave early and continue your date elsewhere. And if you go to a Friday or Saturday night game, you can close out the date by staying and watching the fireworks at the end of the game together. Have fun, and one last thing to remember (and this is important): no baseball metaphors for sex. You won’t be “scoring” or “getting to third-base” that way – you’ll just be left on the bench.

Players to Watch
General Manager Dan Mason says to keep an eye on these Wings: SS Trevor Plouffe, 3B Danny Valencia, C Wilson Ramos, P Anthony Swarzak, P Jeff Manship, P Anthony Slama

Game Day
What: Rochester Red Wings home opener versus Pawtucket Red Sox.
When: 4:05 p.m. Saturday, April 17. Doors open at 2:30 p.m.
Where: Frontier Field – 1 Morrie Silver Way
Ticket prices: $8-$12 for reserved, upper-deck and/or premium seats.
Parking: Parking lots around the stadium.

"We're gonna win that cup!"

Is this the year of the "loser cities?"

I interviewed Tom "Conehead" Girot - a popular vendor at Sabres, Bills, Rochester Red Wings games - a couple weeks ago and the conversation turned to the Buffalo Sabres' Cup chances. He told me that he's hoping this will be the year of the "loser cities." He explained, New Orleans won the Super Bowl to start the trend, the Lebron James led Cleveland Cavaliers are favorites to win the NBA title and the Sabres have the "best player, at the most important position” (goalie Ryan Miller).

Is this possible? Absolutely. But as a Buffalo fan, I have to stay cautiously optimistic. During their 2006 Cup run, I was convinced they would win it all. They would have too, if their entire defense didn’t get injured at the same time. So every time these crazy visions of Ryan Miller, Lindy Ruff and crew lifting the Cup flood into my head I try to justify my expectations. After all, there are more talented teams out there and Buffalo teams are notoriously unlucky. There title hopes usually end up like Jack Bauer’s love life (spoiler: things go horribly wrong).

One of the best opening scenarios for the Sabres is they dispatch of Boston fairly quickly. Any playoff series is nerve-racking. My guess is the Sabres will win in six, but it will be tough. Still, I’m surprised by how many people I’ve seen picking the Bruins to win. Three out of six Sports Illustrated prognosticators are picking the Bruins (usually in six, sometimes seven) and most of the people that have Buffalo winning say it will take seven games. None have the Sabres making it past the second round (they all have the Devils beating the Sabres in seven). But I guess it does make sense to have the worst offensive team in the league (statically that is, the Bruins scored the least amount of goals out of every team in the league) upsetting the team with the best goalie.. (flawless logic obviously.)

Now, I’m being pretty condescending about Boston’s chances but the truth is they’re a division rival with an excellent goalie (surprise, it’s the rookie Rask and not last year’s Vezina winner Tim Thomas) and a very good defense (Along with Chris Neil, Chara is one of my least favorite players). Plus, it’s the playoffs. Anything can happen.

My other gripe with these ESPN and SI playoff previews is how almost all of them state this series as a bore. The Sabres aren’t the offensive powerhouse of a few years ago, but they aren’t too bad and like every Sabres fan, I’m hoping superstar Thomas Vanek will catch fire. Anyway, these games are probably going to be low scoring but that doesn’t make them boring. This is going to be physical, tense playoff hockey and I’m pumped for it. I think all these games will be close – maybe some overtime thrillers – and that certainly isn’t boring.

If all the top seeds win in the East, that wouldn’t be too bad for the Sabres. I think they can beat the Devils and I feel better playing them than Pittsburgh, Washington or Ottawa. The Flyers were 5-1 against the Devils during the regular season (edit: and they won Game 1), so if they upset the Devils, it’s most likely Buffalo will play Ottawa or Pittsburgh. I actually would rather play Ottawa. Crosby just seems to have the Sabres number during crunch time. Either way, if the Sabres are to finally capture that elusive Cup, it makes sense that they would have to go through either one of their biggest rivals (Ottawa) or through the defending champs (Pittsburgh).

If the Sabres return to the Eastern Conference Finals (and as crazy as it may sound, I think they will), then things get tricky. Now I know that the President’s Trophy winning team has struggled to capture the Cup in the past, but I can’t pick against Washington at this point. I don’t see them as the offensive juggernaut with questionable goaltending that’s fated to get upset. I see them more like the Detroit Red Wings of the past two years. A supremely talented team with a good – not great – goaltender that steps up and separates themselves from the pack. Of course, Detroit did have more playoff experience and they still lost to the Penguins last year. So there’s that. If the Sabres run into the Caps, it will be in the Eastern Conference Finals and they’ll need the offense to step up, for Miller to play out of his mind (again) and for a little bit of luck. I’ll go for a reverse jinx/safe, predictable choice and say that Washington will win.

A lot of casual hockey fans are looking for the marquee matchups i.e. Ovechkin vs. Crosby, Caps vs. Blackhawks or Wings. But that doesn’t happen that often. It has happened the past two years with Red Wings-Pens, but I’m going on a limb and say that the Western Conference champion will be… Phoenix.

Yep. Aside from Detroit, they’re the hottest team in the league. Everyone is picking the Wings to beat them, but I see the Coyotes as that random warm-weather team that makes a surprise run to the Cup (like Tampa Bay, Anaheim and, ugh, Carolina). The West is going to be wild this year though, I could see Vancouver emerging too or favorites like Chicago and Detroit making the finals, or even the alleged postseason challenged, one-seed San Jose Sharks. Then again, any of these teams could lose in the first-round. I have no idea, and that’s why playoff hockey is awesome (not to mention stressful).

My pick: I’ll take Washington over Phoenix. But I think/hope this will turn out like my NCAA bracket (hint: I picked zero Final Four teams).

I’m going to end this on an optimistic note. During the Olympics, I had a crazy theory that Ryan Miller would steal the show and finally get his due as one of the NHL’s elite. In turn, this would lead to casual American hockey fans rooting for Miller in the playoffs and this positive Karma would counteract the horrible, possibly cursed Karma of the city of Buffalo. Kind of like casual baseball fans rooting for the Red Sox leading to a miracle against the Yankees and a Championship (oh, that’s what throwing up in your mouth feels like). Part of this crazy theory came true, the Americans didn’t win Gold but Miller did steal the show. Could this be? Would the hockey Gods allow this? I’m thinking yes.

That’s why I implore you casual hockey fans to join the Ryan Miller, Buffalo Sabres bandwagon. I Promise, it will be a fun ride and we can teach you about the French Connection, May Day, Rick Jeanerette, etc. etc. We’ll even let you guys wear the championship hats and t-shirts that we’ve pined after for so long. Most people will even look at us and our optimism and think, those guys are going to be sorely disappointed come June when some other club’s captain is making out with Lord Stanley’s Cup. And maybe that’s so, I’ve been sorely disappointed at the end of every hockey season I’ve followed. But then again, anything can happen…