2010 NFL Preview Part 2

Riding the Pine – 2010 NFL Preview, Pt. 2
Predictions

Before I started this year’s preview, I took at look at some of my previous prognostications. Last year, I was solid in my picks. I had Drew Brees as league MVP, he didn’t win but was (of course) Super Bowl MVP. I was a year early on the Ravens bandwagon, picking them as Super Bowl runner-up to Giants (they started great, but missed the playoffs). I had the Cowboys last in the NFC East (hey, it’s a tough division to pick correctly) and the Jets last in the AFC East (although, my write-up on them was fairly accurate).

I was also a little early on the Packers bandwagon and I made an awesome reference to the Batman villain Bookworm (played by Michael Emerson in Christopher Nolan’s Dark Knight Follow-up?). Oh, I also totally nailed the fact that the Rams would suck.

AFC East
1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Bills
4. Dolphins

This division is a victim of groupthink. One person in the media got it in their head that this division has three Super Bowl contenders and the worst team in the league and that idea spread like a zombie plague. Of course, that means it utilizes brain dead and ignores logic.

All four of these teams have flaws, the Bills have been exaggerated and the others have been ignored. The Patriots are still the team to beat in my mind because they have the same coach and quarterback as they have for the past ten years, the same combo that won them a lot of games. They’re far from those championship teams and have a questionable defense, but they have enough firepower to win the division.

The Jets follow that cliché that if enough people buy into a lie (or in this case a misconception), then eventually it’ll be known as truth. That notion is that the Jets are the most talented team in the league and a major Super Bowl contender. They aren’t. I like some moves they made, but Sanchez was brutal last year in the regular season. They let some of their top offensive talent go (Thomas Jones in particular) and signed some “big-name, star-power” players that have the people in New Jersey (and HBO) excited. But those guys (Tomlinson and Taylor) are not in their primes, far from it. HBO shows the Vince Lombardi trophy during the Hard Knocks title sequence, the narrator calls Mark Sanchez a superstar and Rex Ryan says they’re the “best fucking team in football,” and people buy into. I could go on about this, but honestly thinking about the Jets throws my psyche into a Hulk-like state, so I’ll stop.

While the Jets and Patriots will fight at the top of the division, the Bills and Dolphins will battle at the bottom. Like everyone else, I initially had the Bills finishing last (hey, I’m trying to have realistic expectations this year). The Dolphins did pick up two great players in the offseason (Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby), in fact, they’re the only team in the division that I can see finishing at anywhere in the division standings. The reason I have them last is because I think they’ll get off to a slow start (their schedule is not kind) and never recover. This includes losing the opener to Buffalo.

Speaking of which, why does everyone think the Phins are world-beaters and the Bills are a 2-14 team (seriously Sports Illustrated, ESPN, CBS Sportssline? Come on!). Last year the Bills and Dolphins split the season series, Miami went 7-9, Buffalo 6-10. The Bills rid themselves of the coaching equivalent of Glenn Beck, a conservative idiot (actually, sorry Dick Jauron, you seem like a nice guy and you’re probably smarting than me, so sorry about that). But speaking of horrible people, Bill Parcells stepped down from his previous role which means that Jeff Ireland – the guy who while conducting a job interview asked someone if there mother was a prostitute- will be the new “mastermind” in South Beach.

So, with every sports media outlet ripping on my favorite team I couldn’t pile on, they’ll still be frustrating and definitely still need a new quarterback. But come on, Chad Henne is no superstar either.

So screw it, I’m not conforming to this groupthink. Bills avoid last place, Jets miss playoffs, Pats exit in first round of playoffs and the people in Miami will only be focused on the Heat come October.

AFC North
1. Ravens
2. Bengals
3. Steelers
4. Browns

I won’t be shocked if the Ravens don’t win this division, but they have momentarily passed the Steelers as the marquee team in the North. Blame Ben Roethlisberger. (By the way, every time I hear his name I now immediately think of the first line in Eminem’s “Almost Famous” – one of the best tracks of the year so far).

I kind of feel bad for Peter King, he’s a great reporter and one of my favorite NFL guys to read, but since he’s a top guy he’s required to make picks. He’s awful at this, but of course, everyone is. But guys like him get ripped by crazy fans, I mean I was fuming pretty good when I saw his 2-14 guess for the Bills. He picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl and that is not good news for Pittsburgh fans.

After his year stint in Buffalo, I see Terrell Owens in a different light. He really is treated pretty unfairly by the media and I thought he stayed pretty classy in what was a pretty poor position with the Bills. I think he should have a solid year in Cincy (I hope so, he’s on the bench for my fantasy team the Unicorns of Death). The worry about the Bengals (besides the whole legal troubles, clashing personalities thing) is Carson Palmer. He’s still better than a lot of passers, but he seems like he may never be at the level he was before his injury. Even discounting that, there’s just something about the Bengals that I don’t trust and their back-to-back horrible losses to the Jets last year compound that bad feeling.

There’s no denying that Joshua Cribbs is the man and… oh wait, he just decided to take his talents to South Beach. Bummer.

(Sorry. As someone who roots for the Bills and Sabres I should be above poking fun at other fans’ misfortune. But think of it this way, I’m really making fun of LeBron James. (Screw) him! Go Cavs!)

AFC South
1. Colts
2. Titans
3. Texans
4. Jaguars

Where exactly is that hot tub time machine located? I think I’m going to use it to convince Ralph Wilson to never, NEVER let Bill Polian go. Now, the Colts have even locked up Polian’s son. They have Peyton Manning too. My expert take on Manning: he’s good at playing football.

The Texans will make the playoffs at some point, probably this year, but I’ve they’ve burned their bandwagon jumpers too many times for me to hop on. Having said that, they’ll definitely make the playoffs next year…

Vince Young and Chris Johnson make are a solid duo and Jeff Fisher is one of the most underrated coaches in the league. They’re not a title contender but don’t be surprised if they are a playoff team.

Will anyone else be surprised if Jags coach Shooter McGavin is fired at the end of the year? Oh well, at least they have Tyson Alualu!

AFC West
1. Chargers
2. Raiders
3. Chiefs
4. Broncos

The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos will all be close together in the standings, the drama will be akin to The Celebrity Apprentice (no one will care). Jason Campbell has had horrible luck in his career and being with the Raiders doesn’t change that. Still, I’m glad the Bills didn’t trade for him; he’s very similar to Trent Edwards and I can’t ever see him starting on a championship team. I can see Philip Rivers starting on a champion, but Norv Turner coaching a team to the ultimate ticker-tape parade? Nope.

I like the young playmakers on the Chiefs (this is my debut fantasy season and Jamaal Charles is on my squad. Dexter McCluster is a potential steal as well). I just don’t trust Cassel and they’ve missed a little too often on early draft picks.

The Raiders will be improved, but people are going a little crazy with this Jason Campbell/savior thing. He was the leader of a 4-12 team, he’s basically the same player as Trent Edwards (not a good thing).

Since Josh McDaniels became the man in Denver they’ve made some puzzling move. Maybe a few years from now the Tebow pick will be proven as a brilliant move and the former Gator will help people forget the front office’s other gaffes… but for now the Broncos will be at (or near) the bottom of the division.

NFC East
1. Cowboys
2. Giants
3. Redskins
4. Eagles

The Cowboys hype really is insufferable. Every year they’re pick to win the Super Bowl really for no reason, beside the fact that they have stars on their helmets. I’m picking them to be first in the division, but that’s mainly because these teams are so evenly matched and I’m just going with the fact that usually teams I hate have a lot of success.

I don’t know what to make of the Giants, they played like a team that didn’t care at the end of last year. I think they’ll be back in the playoffs this year though. Eli is no Peyton, but that’s OK, he’s still very good.

My feeling on the Eagles is that they’re going to miss McNabb now that he’s gone. They won’t really regret getting rid of him because it was probably the right choice to see what they have in Kevin Kolb, still, the chances that he’ll become another Aaron Rodgers seems unlikely. Remember, Kolb is from the 2007 draft class, the same class that produced JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, John Beck (my favorite Dolphin of all time), Trent Edwards and a bunch of other guys who suck. Just saying…

I wanted the Bills to get both McNabb and Shanahan. They both went to Washington. Screw them.

NFC North
1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears

I had the Packers pegged as a Super Bowl team months before writing this. At some point the passed the Saints as the best team in the NFC (in perception, not reality that is). Aaron Rodgers, if he stays healthy will have MVP numbers, and yes, it pisses me off that the Bills still haven’t found someone to replace Jim Kelly yet Green Bay somehow found Favre 2.0. Essentially, Rodgers is like the Packers Curb Your Enthusiasm.

The Vikings seem like they’re poised to slip a little, but they aren’t going to ship the division title belt over to Green Bay without an epic fight. Pack vs. Vikes is definitely must-see football.

The Lions have some key building blocks on their road to recovery – Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Ndamukong Suh and most importantly, Matthew Stafford. If Stafford ends up as a bust, well, I don’t think Lions fans want to think about that prospect. Personally, I don’t think he’ll be a bust, just a lesser version of Drew Bledsoe (Hey, Bledsoe was pretty good during his peak).

I just have a bad feeling about the Bears, but hey, at least their quarterback doesn’t have a Justin Bieber haircut…

NFC South
1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers

I flirted with the idea of putting the Falcons on top of the division solely because the NFC South has been wildly unpredictable. I can’t find a great reason why the Saints wouldn’t top the South, yet I said the same thing about last year’s defending Super Bowl champion (the Steelers finished third in the AFC North in 2009).

I wanted the Bills to draft Jimmy Clausen and he could be real good for the Panthers, the main reason why he might not is because of Matt Moore. I could see Moore quietly having a stellar season and helping turn the Panthers back into a dangerous opponent for other teams. I see some similarities between Moore and Romo, of course having to play the Saints and Falcons twice each is a tough task. I included the Falcons in there because they could surprise some people this year.

Tampa Bay is my pick for the number one overall pick. I can’t really specify exactly why (I don’t watch much Buc ball, so they could surprise me), I just don’t like their roster, Josh Freeman’s accuracy reminds me of J.P. Losman and this will keep to my theme of Florida teams finishing in last place.

NFC West
1. 49ers
2. Seahawks
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

Patrick Willis will have a Darrelle Revis-like boost to superstardom this year and the Niners will win pretty much win this division by default. You got to love Mike Singletary as a coach, but at the same time I can’t see them getting past the first round with Alex Smith at QB (I know he supposedly had a resurgent season last year, but I’ve seen that from other failed QBs too).

The Cardinals lost too much talent at key spots to be a serious playoff contender (Kurt Warner, Karlos Dansby, Anquan Boldin) and they’re basically going to have to hope Max Hall is the next Warner to have any success in the near future.

The major question in Seattle is, what week will it be before fans are starting websites like gobacktousc.com and firecarroll.org. I’m saying he goes strong until Week 11.

And the Rams… they’ve won six games the last three years and lost 1,458 (I didn’t look up that number, but seems about right). The bright side? I feel there’s a really Rams-based good drinking game waiting to be created, cease the day Ram fans!

MVP
Aaron Rodgers

I started the Rodgers for MVP bandwagon, I swear.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
C.J. Spiller

Ryan Matthews and Jahvid Best are solid bets too, but I got to be a homer hear and pick Spiller. He’s going to become a superstar and make Bills games exciting again. Even in preseason you could hear the home crowd’s excitement every time he touched the ball. I’ve always been a fan of running backs and especially speedy, highlight reel players, I’m beyond pumped that the Bills finally have one. Seriously, I’m guessing Spiller will be on the cover of Madden 14. (Right after him and Andrew Luck lead the Bills to a shocking Super Bowl victory?)

Defensive Rookie of the Year
Brandon Graham

It’ll be close between Graham and Suh, the former Michigan star will win because he’ll wreak some havoc on quarterback in Philadelphia’s system.

Super Bowl
Colts vs. Packers…. Wait, no, that’s too easy. I had the Packers pegged as a Super Bowl team since the season ended but now the trendy pick. That never works out. For the past few years, the pattern has been a mainstay franchise in the AFC and a surprise in the NFC. So..

Colts vs. Falcons

The year of Matt Ryan! Almost. He has a monster postseason, people start picking the Falcons to upset the Colts just to be different. But we’re do for a vengeance season from a Super Bowl loser. This time the Colts don’t let an NFC South surprise wrestle the championship away from them.

Super Bowl Champion: Colts

P.S. Isn’t it great to have football back?

The Riding the Pine 2010 NFL Preview, Part I: State of the Bills Address

I started playing Words with Friends (Scrabble) about a week ago. It’s definitely addicting … it’s also unbelievably frustrating at times. It’s not hard to figure out where I’ve had that feeling before.

For the past decade, the Buffalo Bills have not been epically bad; they rarely got to that Detroit Lions-level of ineptitude. And that’s one of the more frustrating parts. Since they’ve been stuck in an abyss of mediocrity they haven’t gotten a shot at a truly elite quarterback prospect. (Note: they did have the number four overall pick in 2002. “Starter for the next ten years at tackle” Mike Williams was the pick. Yeah…) (Note II: I don’t want them to be bad just to get a good draft pick, which would be ridiculous. I’m just pointing out that if your team does happen to stink at the right time it could great benefit them, particularly if they get someone like, say, Peyton Manning.) Plus, there’s always just enough hope that the Bills will be the surprise team of the year and end that playoff drought, or find their version of Kurt Warner.

Soon, you realize it’s not going to happen. And that sucks. So, what is it, bad luck? Horrible ownership? A curse? All of the above?

Luck is certainly part of it, but it’s easy to blame bad luck. Just like when I lose in Words with Friends because my opponent scored 35 points of the word “qat” (sounds made up, in fact even my Word spellchecker thinks it’s made up) or the computer gives me all consonants, my initial reaction is to call shenanigans. We’re always quick to blame outside factors, refs especially, are a constant target of mine. That’s too easy though, luck is important to success but so is hiring talented people to run your team. I don’t feel the Bills have taken a proactive, win-at-all-costs approach to their business lately. It’s shown.

I mean, even I started using “qat” against my opponents.

You don’t want to rely too heavily on mirroring another team’s success, but it can’t hurt to take a peek at the blueprint. The Bills, Ralph Wilson in particular, seem content on doing their own thing. Hire a retired, 70-year old rookie GM, why not? Ignore the tackle and quarterback positions? Sure. The teams that have turned around their franchises quickly (I’m thinking of Miami and Atlanta primarily) took similar approaches to each other and pretty much the opposite approach as Buffalo.

Miami and Atlanta did go in different directions regarding their general manager picks, though both worked out and both drew off the concept of hiring someone from a successful environment. The Dolphins snagged Bill Parcells (a move the Bills couldn’t make if they tried. Which they probably wouldn’t try). The Falcons picked a promising talent from a winning franchise, Thomas Dimitroff, formerly of New England. This is what I was hoping the Bills would do (although, to be fair, I’ll definitely give Buddy Nix a shot, and bringing former Steeler Doug Whaley into the mix looks to be a solid move as well). They also drafted franchise players (Jake Long and Matt Ryan). Of course, that again brings me back to the point that the Bills haven’t been bad enough to warrant a draft pick that can get them a talent like Ryan or Long. Still, they’ve pretty much ignored those two positions, I mean, there has to be some way to improve them, right?

The Jets got the quarterback they wanted by ripping off a stupid team. I wish the Bills would make more trades simply because if you go after the incompetent GM’s you can really help yourselves out. For instance, the Jets trading from the 17th overall pick to the 5th to get Sanchez and did this without having to give up the next year’s first round pick. They just traded the Browns a bunch of backups and scrubs that Eric Mangini liked (horrible). I fear though that the problem is this: the Bills are one of those stupid teams. They’re more likely to get ripped off than to take advantage of another team’s moronic tendencies. A look at their recent drafts really lends creditability to the “stupid team” theory.

Before the 2010 draft, I wrote a column campaigning for the Bills to select Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen. To my delight, Clausen was available with the number nine overall pick (remember, leading up to the draft, this was very much in doubt). The Bills practically sprinted to the podium and I thought, “Yes, we have our quarterback.” But I was also reading the ESPN live draft chat as I was watching. The guy on there had been announcing the picks before they were actually made… he said the Bills were picking Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, the top rated running back. I was not happy. Like a lot of Bills fans I scoffed at this pick because they simply did not need another running back.

Needless to say, by the time the second round was ready to start the next day, I had watched enough Spiller YouTube highlights to get excited. Now, at this point, I believe it’s going to turn out to be a great pick. Spiller looks like a future superstar, he certainly could turn into one of the most exciting players in the league and a future Madden-cover candidate (well, you know, if it weren’t for the “No Bills allowed” rule).

I’ll have more on Spiller later in part II, but for all the potential he has, I still have this irksome feeling that the Bills missed a great opportunity in the draft. After Clausen slipped out of the first round, I desperately wanted the Bills to trade up and get their franchise guy. Spiller and Clausen would be the future of offense in Buffalo and a great start to getting this team back to the Super Bowl. When both Clausen and Colt McCoy fell to the second round I couldn’t believe it, finally some luck for the Bills. And then…

The Bills selected Torrell Troup. I couldn’t (and still can't) shake that nagging feeling that the Bills just made one of the moves that you look back on and say, “Oh, we could have had (whoever).” Like picking Mike Williams over Dwight Freeney, Donte Whitner over Haloti Ngata, Marshawn Lynch over Darrelle Revis, you get the point, there’s a lot of them. I know the Bills needed a nose tackle and the P.R. people at Buffalo tell me he’s going to be very good, and he better be. They need him to be a Pro Bowler. By the time the third round rolled along, I knew they weren’t picking a quarterback. Colt McCoy was there, but obviously he, nor any passer in this draft, were thought of as franchise guys by the Bills’ brass.

I realize that Buddy Nix knows way more about football than myself. I mean, I would have taken a guy who lasted until pick 48 over the electric Spiller. As a scout, Nix has that he has a keen eye for talent, but still, why completely ignore the quarterback position? And the left tackle position? The Edwards/Bell combination does not inspire confidence from Bills nation.

Not to mention, waiting until next year to get your quarterback seems very risky (might I add, a strategy that many Bills fans actually wanted). I’m not that confident that they will pick the right guy. We can pray that Brian Brohm suddenly looks like the Louisville All-Star or that Levi Brown is a Tom Brady, Kurt Warner or even Tony Romo type steal. I just can’t buy into the fact that Trent Edwards is the answer. Obviously, I’d love to see him become that franchise guy that Buffalo desperately craves, I would just be shocked if it actually happens.

What about next year’s draft? People are already talking about Locker, Mallett, Ponder, Luck, etc. I’ll try to pay attention to these guys throughout the year because one them should end up as the Bills future passer/savior. Personally, I prefer Andrew Luck just because of his awesome name. Think about it, what great quarterback didn’t have an awesome name? The name is very important, plus I can already envision this lede a couple years from now:

All it took for the Buffalo Bills to finally win the Super Bowl was a little Luck.

Andrew Luck led Buffalo with …. (blah, blah, whatever, I’ll be to drunk and my eyes will be too blurry with tears to read the rest, but I think you get my point).

My only other suggestion for the Bills is something I tweeted a couple weeks ago: hire the guys from Inception. If you could plant ideas in Bill Polian’s head to trade Peyton Manning for Trent Edwards or go into Rex Ryan’s dreams and convince him to become a mime, you’d have to do it. But the more I thought about it, this would be considered cheating and in that case Bill Belichick would have already tried it.

Predictions coming in Part II.


Photo credit: Mike Groll The Associated Press

Time to circle the wagons

There’s a scene in Kick-Ass (which if you haven’t seen it, you should because it’s awesome) that reminded me of the Buffalo Bills. More specifically what it has felt like to root for them for this past decade.

The scene is Kick-Ass’ first fight (small spoiler here, by the way), it’s against those two thugs in the parking lot. Those same guys harassed the non-costumed Kick-Ass and his friend earlier and stole their wallets. Let’s say for this analogy the two criminals are, I don’t know, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and Kick-Ass is the Bills. The audience represents Bills fans.

They start fighting and you might be thinking that the crazy underdog in the funny looking costume might actually win. He has his batons, he looks surprising skilled and might be on the verge of kicking some ass. And right when you start thinking this, one of the thugs (Belichick) pulls a knife and stabs him in the stomach. A cheap tactic for sure, but it doesn’t matter, the fight’s over. The would-be carjackers run away and our hero is left there bleeding freely from his wound. Bills fans are thinking this bad, this can’t get worse…. and then he gets ran over by a car.

And that’s where we are as Bills fans, the team we root for is a seemingly impossible, bloody mess that desperately needs to be fixed up and made stronger. They need a heavy dose of adamantium in their bones. That process starts with this year’s draft. This has to be the turning point, the time when this team gets an identity. And the only way to do that is to get a franchise quarterback.

I’ve heard that this is one of the strongest overall drafts that we’ve seen in a while, but that the quarterback class is a weak spot. I’m no scout (obviously), yet I think it’s vital that the Bills get one of the top four QB’s in the draft (Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow). I actually like this class and think all these guys have Pro Bowl potential (for more, you should definitely check out ESPN’s excellent feature, QB Camp with Jon Gruden).

The guy I really want to see the Bills draft is the former Notre Dame star, Clausen. He’s got a strong, but far from elite arm, but more importantly he’s a very accurate passer. He completed 68% of his passes last year, played through a tough toe injury and from what I’ve read, he was deadly in clutch scenarios. So to recap, excellent accurate, tough, plays well under pressure and possibly ready to start immediately.

The negatives that people list seem mostly superficial. These supposed flaws are that he’s cocky, or a questionable leader or that he has “hit his ceiling.” Being cocky isn’t a bad thing, the last great Bills quarterback, a guy named Jim Kelly, was fairly cocky too. The leadership thing seems off too, in fact a lot of it seems made up by guys like ESPN’s Todd McShay. I trust that Buddy Nix and crew will trust what Clausen’s Notre Dame teammates and coaches say over something a phony scout says. I also find it very hard to believe that someone who is 22 has “reached their ceiling.” That just makes no sense to me. He does have some legitimate flaws in his game (footwork, pocket presence, too much touch on the deep ball), but that’s why good coaching is so vital to a young quarterback. Hopefully, the Bills have the proper coaching to teach their new young gun.

Some Bills fans don’t like the guy simply because he’s goofy looking. Now that’s something I could care less about. Whether he looks like Jeff Spicoli or an angry ostrich it’s irrelevant. Actually, I can see it playing out as Clausen being the guy that Patriot, Dolphin and Jets fans hate. I want him to be the guy who they constantly want to punch in the face or always say, “oh, he’s not that good, he’s just overrated.” Because isn’t that what fans say of other great players? If he’s on one of your division rivals, you either hate him with a passion or you make excuses why he always beats your team. Do you know how many times I’ve heard someone say that Tom Brady or Sidney Crosby is overrated, or just a product of the system? Just trust me, this is a subject I’m all too familiar with. I just want some of these guys on one of my favorite teams. Hopefully, Clausen will be that “overrated, lucky” guy for the Bills. But, how will we get to that point?

Bradford will most likely be picked first. I could see Clausen eventually being better than him , but I can also see Bradford turning out like another recent Oklahoma offensive star with injury concerns, Adrian Peterson. Playing in a dome and a weak division, I think there’s a good chance of success for Bradford and he would be a good, but expensive pick-up for the Rams. A couple months ago, I thought Clausen would never make it to Buffalo’s pick. Washington and Seattle seemed like certainties to select the Irish star. But these teams gave up a lot (from a draft and financial standpoint) in Don McNabb (who I really wanted to see in a Bills uniform) and Charlie Whitehurst, respectfully. That leaves Cleveland, Oakland as threats or a team like the 49ers leapfrogging Buffalo. I wouldn’t be upset if Buffalo moved up a few spots to ensure they get their quarterback.

Now, with the past Bills regime, I couldn’t trust them not to screw up the draft. I’ll give Buddy Nix, Chan Gailey and crew the benefit of the doubt here, but if they have a chance to select a franchise quarterback and pass… let’s just say I’ll have a new hole in my wall. I know a lot of people are saying they need a left tackle at nine and then simply select Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow in the second round. I agree that the Bills have a desperate need for a left tackle and I see the McCoy/Drew Brees comparisons, but there are a few problems with that strategy. A number of the teams picking in front of Buffalo will also be looking at left tackles and with no truly elite players at that position can the Bills really afford to take the 4th best tackle prospect with the ninth pick just to fill a need. And there’s no way that Tebow and McCoy are still there for the Bills 41st overall, second round pick (too many teams have a QB need and these are two of the most high-profile college players in recent memory). So the Bills would have to trade back to the first round or early second round (like the 33rd overall pick, also where Drew Brees was selected). That would cost a lot (more then moving up from nine to say, six) and the Bills have so many holes to fill they can’t give up that many picks for someone like Tebow, who could be a long-term project (albeit with superstar potential).

The most frustrating thing I’ve heard from fellow Bills fans is to not select a quarterback this year, build up the rest of the team, and then draft Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett next year. This strategy is so asinine it makes my head hurt. First off, you can’t pass on a franchise QB. The Rams have done this the past few years, they’ve taken the “safe, can’t-miss” prospects like Chris Long and Jason Smith and passed on “risks” like Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez. By the way, the Rams have won six games, total, the past three years. Awful. And Bills fans want to replicate the Rams strategy? Plus, these supposedly safe picks are just as risky as a quarterback. Also, as bad as the Bills have bad this past decade, they’re not on the level of the Lions, Rams, Raiders. Those teams have consistently picked in the top three picks while the Bills manage to win just enough to select in the 9-15 range and miss out on top passing prospects (or they reach on a guy like J.P. Losman and then pass on guys like Jay Cutler because they have Losman, ugh). So they have no guarantee to pick the top guy next year and they certainly don’t know if these guys will be better than someone like Clausen, or even McCoy.

Buddy Nix has been part of some stellar drafts in San Diego (including picking Brees, Tomlinson and Rivers), so I can only hope that he had more influence on those drafts then we think and that he’s an exceptional judge of quarterback talent. I wasn’t thrilled with him being named GM (I’m a little skeptical about a previously retired 70-year old just now getting his first GM gig), but I’ll give the guy a chance. I was pissed when I heard they hired Chan Gailey as head coach, I absolutely hated that move and it makes me nervous that there are reports that state he wants an athletic QB in the middle rounds of the draft (like Jarrett Brown). There’s even a report from Mike Lombardi (from National Football Post, and a guy who I thought the Bills should have considered for GM) that Gailey passed on Brees in Miami because they already had Ray Lucas. Yikes. So, I do have a nagging feeling that they’ll screw up this draft or take the St. Louis Ram approach, but then again, those guys know way, way, way more about football than I do, so I’ll trust them for now.

We know this; it should be an exciting draft with plenty of stars (Suh, Berry, Spiller, etc.) and some bad teams are going to make that move to jump out of the NFL’s cellar, hopefully New York state’s only team is one of them. It’s time for the Bills to circle the wagon and get their franchise quarterback. And maybe the next time someone uses an analogy from Kick-Ass to describe Buffalo, they’ll be comparing the Bills to Hit-Girl.

Rochester Red Wings: A Guide to Opening Day

Note: This article is (a slightly modified, longer version) from the April 15 of the insider, so pick one up or visit: http://rochester.metromix.com




Baseball is back and so are the Rochester Red Wings. The home opener is April 17 and if you’re considering going but lack the proper baseball knowledge,
here’s a guide of things-to-know about Frontier Field, along with some insider Red Wings knowledge to impress your friends (or date) in-between innings.

The Stadium
For the most part, all fans that go to a game share a similar goal: to see their team win… and to catch a foul ball.

The grass berm area (lawn areas below the stands) on both the first-base and third-base side is one of the better spots to get that elusive foul ball, says General Manager Dan Mason. So, what are some tips to successfully nab one of these foul balls? “Definitely bring a glove and a hat, just in case it’s sunny,” Mason says. “A lot of people don’t pay attention, they may still end up with a foul ball because it ended up in their lap or food or something. But if you’re paying attention, you’re going to know where (the ball) is going.”

He adds that the berms and the seats next to the dugouts – specifically the Red Wings’ dugout – are some of the most sought after seats. There is also a fan zone couch section in the outfield (the “couch potato,” $55 for five tickets but sold-out for the opener) and the Patio Enclosures Power Alley Grille at the 385-foot mark in right-center field – the same spot where the Frontier Field hot tub used to sit (rental is $1650 for 40 tickets and all-you-can-eat food package).

The Red Wings will continue another beloved baseball tradition this year as well – free giveaways. “For opening day, we’re doing a cowbell giveaway,” says Director of Promotions Matt Cipro. “Always on opening day we giveaway something that encourages the fans to cheer, get loud and support the team. We find that the cowbells come back game after game.” And yes, the popular Will Ferrell/cowbell Saturday Night Live clip will be displayed on the scoreboard.

Other summer promotions include, magnetic schedule giveaways, fleece blankets, baseball caps and gloves for kids, baseball cards, t-shirts, backpacks, fireworks every Friday and Saturday night, appearances by former players and a pre-game autograph tent.

Behind-the-scene MVP’s
Dave McAlpin, 25, teaches Physical Education at Monroe #1 BOCES during the day, but at night (and during the summer) he has an alter ego. He’s not a superhero, but he’s involved in one of sports most beloved and fan-friendly aspects – the mascot.

“It’s interesting having the suit on because everyone you see has some sort of reaction to you and you need to react to them as well,” he says about becoming the Wings’ mascot Spikes. McAlpin has some advice for the aspiring mascots out there too: “I always make sure to drink plenty of water before, during and after the game. You sweat a whole lot in the suit and if you don’t stay hydrated you start to feel a little woozy.”

Spikes does have help though. Amanda Prosser, 25, is the woman behind his sidekick, Mittsy. “Maybe I’ll have a bad day or be tired or stressed, but then I put the suit on and I’m automatically in a better mood,” she says. “People are smiling and laughing and it makes me feel better.”

This is McAlpin’s seventh season as the Wings male mascot and Prosser’s sixth as Mittsy. They’ve known each other since high school and have a good report with each other, but is there room for more in the Wings’ mascot family?

“Well, we haven’t really developed a relationship between (Spikes and Mittsy). Right now they’re just friends,” says Cipro, but he does offer up a teaser. “There will be a sort of mascot-related, player-related surprise on opening night. Something (fans) have seen around baseball, but never hear in Rochester.”

One thing that Rochester (and Buffalo) fans have seen many times is a certain vendor who sells beer, peanuts, popcorn and pixie sticks. His name is Tom Girot, and he’s better known as the “conehead.”

“Conehead is our most recognizable vendor,” says Mason. “He has quite a following among our fans.” Girot explains that his legendary run began as a simple Halloween purchase.

“I started wearing it in 1978. It was the first year I was married and the Coneheads were popular on Saturday Night Live. My wife bought a conehead and wore it to work and they ended up on the news. It was Halloween time and there was a Bills game that Sunday so I decided to wear it to the game,” Girot says. “I was kind of upset that she spent $20 on a piece of junk and I figured, ‘well, I better get some kind of use out of this’ and over the years I certainly have.”

Girot doesn’t do a Dan Aykroyd impression but he does offer up the Conehead guarantee, “Get a warm beer from me you drink it for free.”

Aside from the comforting yell of the vendors, another familiar Frontier Field sound is that of organist Fred Costello. He’s turned down five major-league teams – including the Yankees and Mets – to stay with the Wings (he also occasionally plays for the Buffalo Sabres).

Costello, McAlpin, Prosser and Girot all certainly play the part of the unsung heroes for the fans at the ballpark, but the players have their own unsung hero; Dr. Michael Mayer – the team dentist.

“Many of (the players) aren’t from this area and don’t have a dentist locally. They’re here from April to September and a lot of them have needs that need to be taken care of,” says Mayer. “We’ve had to deal with chipped teeth and lost fillings through the habits of chewing (sunflower) seeds and gum. We do some teeth whitening too because a lot of these guys are on baseball cards or other photos and they want their teeth to look nice and white.”

Refreshments
The assortment of food and beverages at the stadium aren’t exactly a dentist’s dream, but there’s something for every other fan. In the concourse area is ‘Sup Dog – a variety of hot dogs including the plate dog (think garbage plate) and the DiMaggio dog (peppers, onions and home fries). There’s also pizza, burgers, pulled pork, cheesesteaks, nachos, subs, wraps, fish, ice cream, a Red Osier stand and an allergen (gluten, dairy, nut) free stand called “Free.”

To quench your thirst there’s water, soda, coffee and beer (including the exclusive Rohrbach-brewed Red Wing “Red” Ale, Labatt, Bud and Genny). The Wings also have their own bar located in the stadium, The 10th Inning Bar, located at the end of the concourse. It includes, flat-screen TV’s and is also in a spot where you can just walk around the corner and still see the action in the Wings game. “It stays open – depending on the night- a half-hour to an hour after the game,” Cipro says.

Date Night
Taking a date to a ballgame is a nice alternative to being stuck in a movie theater or restaurant, especially when the weather is nice. Here’s a few things-to-know about a Red Wings date night (and how to avoid any Bill Buckner-type errors).

The grass berms are perfect for a picnic date. If you’re at the berm on the third-base side just remember to avoid the jokes at the expense of the “nut-free” zone signs (they’re for people with peanut allergies). Be alert for those foul balls too, your night will be over quickly if your date has the stitching from a baseball tattooed to his/her forehead. However, retrieving a foul ball for your date could be a romantic gesture. Tip: although it may seem like a good idea at first, beating up the little-league crowd to retrieve said foul ball is not romantic.

Frontier Field doesn’t have a kiss-cam, and that’s good news for your date. This will help avoid that whole awkward situation of having your first kiss be a clash of beer breath and relish mouth in front of 10,000 people. They do have a smile-cam, however. That’s manageable (as long as you’re careful with the mustard that is).

There’s plenty of time for conversation at a baseball date too. Sprinkling in the occasional baseball facts or Red Wings tidbits is good conversation fodder, but if you start debating the merits of a player’s on-base percentage versus slugging percentage then you might be losing your date. (Unless he/she is in several fantasy leagues…) The seventh-inning stretch is a good time to check out the Frontier Field bar (The 10th Inning) and buy your date a drink. If things are going well, a blowout (in favor of the Wings of course) can be your ally. You’ll have a valid reason to leave early and continue your date elsewhere. And if you go to a Friday or Saturday night game, you can close out the date by staying and watching the fireworks at the end of the game together. Have fun, and one last thing to remember (and this is important): no baseball metaphors for sex. You won’t be “scoring” or “getting to third-base” that way – you’ll just be left on the bench.

Players to Watch
General Manager Dan Mason says to keep an eye on these Wings: SS Trevor Plouffe, 3B Danny Valencia, C Wilson Ramos, P Anthony Swarzak, P Jeff Manship, P Anthony Slama

Game Day
What: Rochester Red Wings home opener versus Pawtucket Red Sox.
When: 4:05 p.m. Saturday, April 17. Doors open at 2:30 p.m.
Where: Frontier Field – 1 Morrie Silver Way
Ticket prices: $8-$12 for reserved, upper-deck and/or premium seats.
Parking: Parking lots around the stadium.

"We're gonna win that cup!"

Is this the year of the "loser cities?"

I interviewed Tom "Conehead" Girot - a popular vendor at Sabres, Bills, Rochester Red Wings games - a couple weeks ago and the conversation turned to the Buffalo Sabres' Cup chances. He told me that he's hoping this will be the year of the "loser cities." He explained, New Orleans won the Super Bowl to start the trend, the Lebron James led Cleveland Cavaliers are favorites to win the NBA title and the Sabres have the "best player, at the most important position” (goalie Ryan Miller).

Is this possible? Absolutely. But as a Buffalo fan, I have to stay cautiously optimistic. During their 2006 Cup run, I was convinced they would win it all. They would have too, if their entire defense didn’t get injured at the same time. So every time these crazy visions of Ryan Miller, Lindy Ruff and crew lifting the Cup flood into my head I try to justify my expectations. After all, there are more talented teams out there and Buffalo teams are notoriously unlucky. There title hopes usually end up like Jack Bauer’s love life (spoiler: things go horribly wrong).

One of the best opening scenarios for the Sabres is they dispatch of Boston fairly quickly. Any playoff series is nerve-racking. My guess is the Sabres will win in six, but it will be tough. Still, I’m surprised by how many people I’ve seen picking the Bruins to win. Three out of six Sports Illustrated prognosticators are picking the Bruins (usually in six, sometimes seven) and most of the people that have Buffalo winning say it will take seven games. None have the Sabres making it past the second round (they all have the Devils beating the Sabres in seven). But I guess it does make sense to have the worst offensive team in the league (statically that is, the Bruins scored the least amount of goals out of every team in the league) upsetting the team with the best goalie.. (flawless logic obviously.)

Now, I’m being pretty condescending about Boston’s chances but the truth is they’re a division rival with an excellent goalie (surprise, it’s the rookie Rask and not last year’s Vezina winner Tim Thomas) and a very good defense (Along with Chris Neil, Chara is one of my least favorite players). Plus, it’s the playoffs. Anything can happen.

My other gripe with these ESPN and SI playoff previews is how almost all of them state this series as a bore. The Sabres aren’t the offensive powerhouse of a few years ago, but they aren’t too bad and like every Sabres fan, I’m hoping superstar Thomas Vanek will catch fire. Anyway, these games are probably going to be low scoring but that doesn’t make them boring. This is going to be physical, tense playoff hockey and I’m pumped for it. I think all these games will be close – maybe some overtime thrillers – and that certainly isn’t boring.

If all the top seeds win in the East, that wouldn’t be too bad for the Sabres. I think they can beat the Devils and I feel better playing them than Pittsburgh, Washington or Ottawa. The Flyers were 5-1 against the Devils during the regular season (edit: and they won Game 1), so if they upset the Devils, it’s most likely Buffalo will play Ottawa or Pittsburgh. I actually would rather play Ottawa. Crosby just seems to have the Sabres number during crunch time. Either way, if the Sabres are to finally capture that elusive Cup, it makes sense that they would have to go through either one of their biggest rivals (Ottawa) or through the defending champs (Pittsburgh).

If the Sabres return to the Eastern Conference Finals (and as crazy as it may sound, I think they will), then things get tricky. Now I know that the President’s Trophy winning team has struggled to capture the Cup in the past, but I can’t pick against Washington at this point. I don’t see them as the offensive juggernaut with questionable goaltending that’s fated to get upset. I see them more like the Detroit Red Wings of the past two years. A supremely talented team with a good – not great – goaltender that steps up and separates themselves from the pack. Of course, Detroit did have more playoff experience and they still lost to the Penguins last year. So there’s that. If the Sabres run into the Caps, it will be in the Eastern Conference Finals and they’ll need the offense to step up, for Miller to play out of his mind (again) and for a little bit of luck. I’ll go for a reverse jinx/safe, predictable choice and say that Washington will win.

A lot of casual hockey fans are looking for the marquee matchups i.e. Ovechkin vs. Crosby, Caps vs. Blackhawks or Wings. But that doesn’t happen that often. It has happened the past two years with Red Wings-Pens, but I’m going on a limb and say that the Western Conference champion will be… Phoenix.

Yep. Aside from Detroit, they’re the hottest team in the league. Everyone is picking the Wings to beat them, but I see the Coyotes as that random warm-weather team that makes a surprise run to the Cup (like Tampa Bay, Anaheim and, ugh, Carolina). The West is going to be wild this year though, I could see Vancouver emerging too or favorites like Chicago and Detroit making the finals, or even the alleged postseason challenged, one-seed San Jose Sharks. Then again, any of these teams could lose in the first-round. I have no idea, and that’s why playoff hockey is awesome (not to mention stressful).

My pick: I’ll take Washington over Phoenix. But I think/hope this will turn out like my NCAA bracket (hint: I picked zero Final Four teams).

I’m going to end this on an optimistic note. During the Olympics, I had a crazy theory that Ryan Miller would steal the show and finally get his due as one of the NHL’s elite. In turn, this would lead to casual American hockey fans rooting for Miller in the playoffs and this positive Karma would counteract the horrible, possibly cursed Karma of the city of Buffalo. Kind of like casual baseball fans rooting for the Red Sox leading to a miracle against the Yankees and a Championship (oh, that’s what throwing up in your mouth feels like). Part of this crazy theory came true, the Americans didn’t win Gold but Miller did steal the show. Could this be? Would the hockey Gods allow this? I’m thinking yes.

That’s why I implore you casual hockey fans to join the Ryan Miller, Buffalo Sabres bandwagon. I Promise, it will be a fun ride and we can teach you about the French Connection, May Day, Rick Jeanerette, etc. etc. We’ll even let you guys wear the championship hats and t-shirts that we’ve pined after for so long. Most people will even look at us and our optimism and think, those guys are going to be sorely disappointed come June when some other club’s captain is making out with Lord Stanley’s Cup. And maybe that’s so, I’ve been sorely disappointed at the end of every hockey season I’ve followed. But then again, anything can happen…

CDs of the Decade!

For next year, I plan to post more and do more than just sports stuff. I may move this to a different blogger post, but for now I'm attaching it to Riding the Pine. These aren't everyone's idea of best Cd's of the decade, but they're my favorites. (So, I guess that really makes them the best. Right?)

For added difficulty I gave myself one rule: No repeat bands. I didn't want it just to become a discography of my favortie bands and it made coming up with this more challenging and fun.

Need More Listens:
Them Crooked Vultures - Them Crooked Vultures
The Best of 2009, this probably will be on the list at some point, but it just came out in November so I figured I would give it more time to sink in. Having said that, "No One Loves Me & Neither Do I" is one of the best tracks I've heard in a long time and the whole CD has everything I look for... awesome riffs, creativity, lyrics that make me wish I thought them up, thrashing drums, etc.

These are ones on other list I have read that I need to get more listens in before making a final decision on them.
Interpol - Turn on the Bright Lights
Jay-z - The Blueprint
Animal Collective - Merriweather Post Pavilion
Bloc Party - Silent Alarm

Honorable Mentions:
(note: any of these probably could have made the top ten, depending on my musical mood for that particular day.)
MGMT - Oracular Spectatcular
Arcade Fire - Funeral
The Raconteurs - Counselors of the Lonely
My Morning Jacket - Z
TV on the Radio - Dear Science
Incubus - Morning View
Eminem - The Marshall Mathers LP
blink-182 - Take Off Your Pants and Jacket
Foo Fighters - One by One
The Shins - Wincing the Night Away
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Stadium Arcadium
Muse - Black Holes and Revelations

(That's a lot. Don't let people tell you there wasn't any good music this decade.)

The Top Ten
10. Spoon - Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga - With more listens Gimme Fiction or Kill the Moonlight may replace this. Either Way, Spoon is awesome and this CD just makes me feel awesome.
9. Saves the Day - Stay What You Are Saves the Day were a huge part of the end of my high school career and the tremendously underrate In Reverie defined my freshman year of college (I was actually really close to putting that one one here instead). But because of Freakish, At Your Funeral and This is Not an Exit, I think this will always be my favorite Saves the Day. They get bonus points for being present at two of my top three favorite concerts of all time.
8. Modest Mouse - Good News For People Who Love Bad News- A lot of Modest Mouse fans prefer The Moon and Antarctica and probably don't like this one at all. But I disagree, this is great and giving Modest Mouse more exposure (and even a Guitar Hero shoutout) isn't really a bad thing.
7. Green Day - American Idiot - My initial reaction was that I liked 21st Century Breakdown more. I don't know if I've changed my mind, but for now I'm giving American Idiot the nod.
6. Wilco - Yankee Hotel Foxtrot - The best of many great Wilco dics.
5. Kings of Leon - Aha Shake Heartbreak - Pretty much a toss up between this and Youth & Young Manhood.
4. Radiohead - Amnesiac - Kid A topped most decade lists that I read, so I know I'm in the minority but I prefer Amnesiac. "You and Whose Army?," "Life in a Glasshouse" and "Pyramid Song," come one, you can't tell me they're just Kid A B-sides. In Rainbows could very well be here too and Hail to the Thief is another underrated gem.

Top 3 (note: These really could be in any order, they're three of my all-time favorites. But for now this is how it stands.)
3. The White Stripes - Elephant (2003) - Jack White is the man. And Meg is his perfect compliment. This is one of the best guitar albums of the decade and the fun that they had making this rubs off on the listener. Ball and Biscuit is my song of the decade and probably my favorite of all time. (And you better believe it's my ringtone.)
2.The Strokes - Is This It? (2001)- Everything I ever want in an album. I've listened to this and the number one pick more than anything and there's a reason for that. A desert island pick? Hell yeah! This could even win over Ben Linus and the smoke monster.
1.Arctic Monkeys -Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not (2006)- In January 2006 I heard some buzz about this band, a band with a weird name, young ages and hyped like crazy by NME. vI checked out some of the material (not expecting too much) that they had unleashed on the Internet. It's the best feeling when you discover a band and know there is something special about them. It's like you can tell, "this is going to be my favorite band." The Arctic Monkeys are my favorite band entering this new decade and their debut is still their best. (Still please, do yourself a favor and check out Favourite Worst Nightmare, Humbug and their brilliant b-side.)
They're the kind of band that if you're driving around alone, windows down and this CD in, you won't want to reach your destination until the disc is done. Fuck wasting gas, this CD rocks that much. Alex Turner knows how to write lyrics and these tales about small, shitty towns, striking out at the same bars, bouncers, getting drunk, scummy men, etc. are simply brilliant in every way. Kids who put lyrics in their IM away messages, facebook, twitter accounts, etc. can do themselves a favor and out these songs.
And yes, an Arctic Monkeys concert that I went to at the Metro in Chicago is also on my list of top concerts.

Here's to more great music and feel free to post your favorites in the comments. Rock on!

The Official 2009 Riding the Pine NFL (Super) Preview

"Congratulations Universe, you win!"

That was my response to hearing that the Buffalo Bills (my favorite team) had signed Mr. Terrell Owens (T.O. - one of my least favorite players and a Riding the Pine go-to joke). I quickly talked myself into the move and I do like, really. It was the right thing to do and should help Buffalo's stagnant offense. And honestly, maybe the Bills (especially Jauron and Edwards) need to be called out by someone, maybe the Bills need that passion, that fire (they don't really need that egotism though...).

Anyway, my point is that I shouldn't have been that shocked. The NFL always has a few surprises up it's sleeve - it's universe will always surprise and baffle us. So, won't it happen again? Most don't seem to think so. For instance, take a look at other season predictions nearly everyone I have read has the Patriots winning the Super Bowl. Really? What a boring, predictable selection. Predictable isn't always a bad thing, the Pats are the favorites and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them win the Super Bowl (I would however, punch a hole in my living room wall the size of T.O.'s ego).

Now, I've seen some crazy picks as the team NE will beat... Chicago, New Orleans, the Las Vegas Locomotives. That just makes no sense, why show all this respect to the Patriots but completely dismiss the other powerhouses of the league, the consistently good teams?

I noticed a trend last year in all the major sports. There were surprise teams in every league including two of the historically (at least for a short history in one case)awful, laughingstock franchises reaching the championship game: The Tampa Bay (non-Devil) Rays and the Arizona Cardinals. Both had very legitimate chances to win too. But in the end it was traditional teams from more reknonwed cities winning. Older franchises that have tasted plenty of glory in the past: the Steelers, the Phillies, the Lakers, the North Carolina Tar Heels, The Penguins, the Gators, whatever WNBA team won the title. So in the end the stalwart franchises prevail. It would be fortune in some cases if this trend continued (go Yankees!) but wouldn't be good for my Bills and Sabres. However, I think it will continue, to certain extent anyway...

Enough build-up, here's this year's preview (I'm calling it a super preview for obvious reasons) and here's to eternal hope that our favorite team will rattle the universe with a improbable Super Bowl victory! (That goes out to everyone but NE, Miami, Jets and Cowboys fans... I hope your teams lose every game. Jerks.)

Part One:

AFC

AFC East
1. You know
2. Miami Dolphins (ugh)
3. BUFFALO BILLS
4. Jersey Jets

This summer I breezed through the Battlestar Gallactica DVDs on Netflix (amazing show), and I can to an important realization. Bill Belichick is a cylon! There's no other explanation, I think Robert Kraft and Roger Gooddell both know about it and continue to do nothing. Al Davis obviously had no clue because he continues to allow NE to rip him off in trades. So, unfortunately, I have to pick the Patriots as division champs again. But I'm holding out hope that the return of the red and white Patriot Pat uniforms (I admit, they're pretty cool) will mean the return of the Patriots playing like they normally did in the gear (sucky).

I have no idea why I always get some pumped for the Bills games against NE, I'm already counting the days until the Monday Night opener (I'm going to loathe waiting all the way through Monday though). But deep down, I'm very pessimistic, in fact I can't see anyway the Bills can win this game. That's why I'm loading up on beer before hand.

But that brings me to my new outlook on the Bills this season, I'm trying something new out. If you've read my past previews, you would have noticed that I twice picked the Bills to make the playoffs. They finished 7-9 both times. I genuinely believed that they were a good team, definitely a playoff team, and maybe a team that could be the year's surprise Super Bowl contestant. The Bills did an awesome job raising these hopes (a 5-1 start, looking like a team of destiny against an undefeated Dallas squad on Monday Night Football), but they crushed these hopes like a swift kick to the groin. And, that's how I've equated being a Bills fan these past few years... it's like being continually pummeled in the groin. Well, no more suffering! I've decided to buy a cup! To put it simply, I'm curbing my enthusiasm, thinking negatively, the keg is half empty, damn it! This way, I'll be less prone to disappointment, they can only surprise me. And everyone likes surprises.

Now, will this work? Probably not, but I'm sure as well not going to predict a playoff birth for Buffalo (even with that Alex Van Pelt magic). In fact, I'm going to say that they won't see the playoffs as long as Dick Jauron is around. It sucks that the nice guys, the guys you'd like to root for, just aren't as good as coaches as the loathsome (possibly evil robot) coaches. To stick with the BSG analogy, the Patriots are the Cylons and the Bills are Caprica - a once proud entity that gets completely destroyed by a more powerful force that surprises them, overpowers them and just simply outsmarts them.

(LOST spoiler: It's all right, once Juliet destroys Jug head and resets the timeline, then both the Bills and Sabres will have avoided all those heartbreakers. There, I feel better already.)

Oh yeah, the Jets and Dolphins are in this division too. Well, I think Miami is well coached, and they could be a feisty opponent. I didn't expect Pennington to be that great last year. They'll flirt with the playoffs, but they're not at an elite level and I don't think their knocking at that specific door either. The Jets are headed in a direction that scares me, but for this year, I think they're overrated and will battle Buffalo for 3rd in the division. Ultimately, they'll show plenty of positives but won't have a record that is much better than mediocre. There's a lot of hype around Sanchez, and I have the feeling that he'll be a pretty good one, but he won't have Ryan or Flacco success. I mean, even Peyton Manning was 3-13 his first year. The silver lining is that, if Sanchez happens to be a bust than the Dirty Sanchez jokes will be all the funnier (PS I know that joke is a little too easy, but hey if it works... Artie Lange didn't let that stop him from using the "Tony Homo" routine on his infamous Joe Buck appearance, and apparently people liked that.)

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Cincy Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns

Oops, did I really pick the Browns to win this division last year? I'm not making that mistake this year. I think the Ravens will be a nasty team this year - a classic smash-mouth, hard-hitting defensive team that no one will want to face in the playoffs. Except Pittsburgh, that is. They won't mind, mainly because they're the new Patriots. Roethsliberger is now the guy that just always finds a way to win. He doesn't put up staggering numbers (they're Pro Bowl worthy, but not MVP/video game-like stats), but if you watch him then you can see how great this guy is. It actually makes me more bitter about the 2004 draft, you know the one where the Steelers and Bills both finished 6-10 the year before but the Steelers picked 11th, the Bills 13th. They got Big Ben, we later traded a bunch picks to get back in the first round and draft the current QB for the Vegas Locomotives, J.P. Losman. After repeatedly bashing my face into a wall, I finally realized that this is just how things work. Teams like the Steelers will always have this kind of luck, other teams will not be as fortunate.

Speaking of unlucky teams, the Bengals and Browns will finish third and forth respectively (or maybe unrespectively). The Bengals aren't a good team, but they aren't that bad either, certainly not as bad as last year. Carson Palmer was on the fast track to greatness, but injuries have wreaked havoc on him and his team. Again, some teams are just have-nots. It doesn't help when you have shoddy ownership and a team notorious for its slew of arrests. One possible bright side, may be 2nd round pick Rey Mauluga. He seems like he could be a steal despite the fact that teams like the Chargers, Ravens and Patriots passed on him. One more Bengal note, is it just me or does Andre Smith seem like the second coming of Mike Williams (not a good thing, Mr. Smith)?

I think the league is a little more fun when teams like the Browns, Bills and Steelers are all good. For most of this decade, that hasn't been the case though and the Browns aren't very good now (I was considering putting D-III super team the Mt. Union Purple Raiders ahead of the Browns, but then I wouldn't be able to recycle that same joke later in the column). Mangini is a bad a coach as Jauron and he probably won't do any better than Romeo Crennel, another former Patriot Defensive coordinator was in Cleveland.

AFC South
1. Colts (I'm really being risky with these division winners obviously)
2. Houston Texans
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

I don't know. I can't quite figure this one out. Without Dungy, Indy will finally be on the decline, right? But, wait, they still have Manning. And Tennessee, I've had a feeling they'd be good the past few years, but I liked them less than other teams in the division so I slotted them at the bottom of the division. Is this the year Houston finally breaks through? Was last year a fluke for Jacksonville? Or was the year before? I just don't know.

I guess my thinking is this, as long as the Colts have Manning they'll be good, as long as the Patriots have Brady, they'll be good, etc. The Colts ended strong last year and I wasn't real discouraged by their playoff loss at San Diego. I won't pick them to win the Super Bowl again, but I do think they'll take the division.

Houston will challenge for a Wild Card spot again. They won't finish 8-8 again, but it'll fall on either side of that - 7-9 or 9-7. I'm not convinced that Schaub is the franchise and he does have problems staying healthy. They do have some franchise guys though, Mario Williams, Andre Johnson and possibly Steve Slaton.

Make no mistake, the Titans will be good again. But you can be a good team and still miss the playoffs in this league. Jeff Fisher is still one of the best and their defense should still be solid even without Haynesworth. But Kerry Collins? I can't see them getting real far with him, sorry, I guess that's Karma for the "Music City Illegal Forward Pass."

The Jags will be better than last year, but their coach looks exactly like Shooter McGavin, and we all know Shooter's fate...

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. USC Trojans
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Denver Broncos
5. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers take this division with more authority than last year's 8-8 clunker. I still can't see them toppling the rest of the AFC field and making it to the big game in Miami at the end of the year.

I'm obviously just kidding about USC, I have no idea how good they'll be this year. Starting a freshman QB is always a risk even for a superpower like Pete Carroll's squad.

I picked the Chiefs last, but I think they're headed in the right direction, in fact I almost picked them to finish second behind the Chargers. There's definitely some concerns, but there's a lot of things to like too, including Scott Pioli and their fiery new coach, former Cards offensive coordinator Todd Haley. It's nice to work with Belichick, but I think Pioli probably had a lot to do with New England's success and I'm not going to doubt his abilities. But it'll take more than one season to rebuild the Chiefs and Matt Cassel remains a question mark (for both health reasons and for the fact that he no longer has New England's awesome supporting cast). Still, playing at Arrowhead is never fun for opponents and the Chiefs will almost certainly pull off some upsets there.

The Raiders have some talent and I think they'll win enough games to finish behind the Chargers. However, they're too dysfunctional to win more than 6 or 7 games and I'm not a huge fan of Tom Cable as a head coach.

Wait, head coaches destined to fail? That sounds like you Josh McDaniels. Those Patriot coordinators have done, for the most part, an awful job after graduating from the school of Belichick. They've done almost as bad as players that have left the esteemed institution (they must miss that pristine cafeteria and it's excellent HGH breakfast burritos). So, that's one strike against McDaniels and the fact that I'm guessing most Broncos fans are enraged that he ripped apart the only positive from last years team (offense), swapped Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton (I know that got a bunch of picks too, but that doesn't really help my point, does it?) is another strike. I'm guessing the third strike comes when the Broncos have a disastrous season and have Pat Bowlen questioning why he fired (future Bills coach?*) Mike Shannahan.

* - only the future coach if Bill Cowher turns down the job. We know Jauron won't be the coach, right? right?

Part 2
NFC

NFC East
1. New York Giants
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

You can find flaws for every team, but that doesn't mean they aren't a good team. Each one of these teams is flawed, but also extremely talented. This is still the top division in football. Is there an NFC Champion in the bunch? Or a Super Bowl winner? Well...

The Giants were a regular season powerhouse last year, but came up empty in the postseason. Still, they have a great team and I think they'll repeat as division champs (of course I picked them to finish last in the division the year they won the Super Bowl).

Donovan McNabb is one of my favorite players, but I don't think he'll win a Super Bowl. Signing/trading for big names like Jason Peters and Michael Vick is always the way to go, and besides I'm still bitter about Peters shitty performance last year. My only hope is that Demetrius Bell turns out to be better than Peters, signs a contract bigger than Peters and then builds a house right next to Peters only twice as large, and hangs a solid gold sign in his front yard that says, "Suck it, Peters!" I think that sounds reasonable.

Washington and Dallas will have similar records, neither will make the playoffs. Even though, I picked the Cowboys to finish last, I by no means think they're a bad team. But, you have to admit it is might sweet to see Jerry Jones look like a fool. Besides, even if they did make the playoffs they would end up getting bounced in the first round like a punt off their poorly placed score board (Yep).

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Chicago Bears
4. Detriot Lions

The other day at work we were talking about Batman. One of my co-workers was listing villians and this what he said, "You have the Joker, Bookworm, Mr. Freeze-" I cut him off there. What? Bookworm? That sounds made up (and sounds like the lamest villain ever). I was sure that I was a victim of some practical joke, I mean when did Batman start beating up on nerds? However...



Oh, man. Fucking Bookworm, are you kidding me? Anyway. my point is that the Detroit Lions are the Bookworm of the NFL. They're pushovers, more of a punchline than a threat. And I don't like this. I've always liked the Lions because I was a big Barry Sanders fan (who wasn't), and I didn't get as much joy out of their 0-16 as I would have if the Dolphins finished 0-16 (and this is a good time to remind you that they did finish 1-15 just two years ago. Good times). Matt Millen could have read all the books he wanted and he still would have been the worst GM in history (not just NFL history). The only book he did read seemed to be "How to Suck." I certainly hope they're on the right track, but that will mostly depend on if they can build a solid, reliable offensive and defensive line and of course, on Matthew Stafford. I find it funny that most people are automatically assuming that Mark Sanchez will be better than Stafford seemingly just because he was drafted by the Lions. Sadly, I can't say that I disagree.

On to the Bears... Peter King picked the Bears to go to the Super Bowl. Bold, but I don't see it. This is also a good point to mention that I took the Peter King challenge on SI.com last year and kicked his ass. I finished somewhere tied for 18th overall (I think, I don't remember that exact position) and he finish somewhere closer to 1,000th place. Chalk one up for Riding the Pine!

I try not to put too much stock into preseason, but if someone else does, that's fine with me, why would I care? I just think you have to be consistent. For instance, King was getting on the Bills case because how much their offense has sucked in the preseaon (which is a very valid point, because they were awful and both Walker and Schoenert paid for it). But the only team they looked good against was the Bears... who he picks to go to the Super Bowl. Edwards actually outplayed Cutler in that one (it was Cutler's first game as a Bear). The Bills played brilliantly last preseason against the Steelers, Edwards looked great and the starting D terrorized Big Ben, but it didn't matter in the real season when the Bills were finishing 7-9 and the Steelers were winning another Super Bowl.

Of course, one team that looked fantastic in preseason when I watched them was the Packers. That's not why I picked them first though (I'm no hypocrite). I know Favre won't want to finish behind them and I can understand why people pick the Vikings in this division. I've always had a fondness for great running backs and Adrian Peterson definitely falls into that category. But the Packers have that look of a "bounce-back team," one that goes from 6-10 to 11-5 and division champs (or something like that). When Rodgers was sitting behind Favre all those years and even when he was drafted, he reminded me of Losman. Naturally, I thought he would be a bust. I was wrong. And that's something I'm going to keep in mind for my playoff picks - my gut has been wrong. A lot. So, I'm pulling a George Costanza, doing the opposite of what I think is right. Hey, it got him a job with the Yankees...

And before I close up on this division I have to say that I - like everyone else - am sick of Favre's antics. However, when I heard he was flirting with the Vikings, I got a little excited. I mean, come on. Favre against the Packers. At Lambeau. As a Viking. No wonder ESPN has a constant Favre boner.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I've been a big Jake Delhomme fan ever since his awesome performance in the 2004 Super Bowl against New England. But man, that playoff performance was brutal. The Panthers won't get far this year and will look for a new quarterback. Tampa got their new signal caller, but to me the move to reach for Josh Freeman reminded me of the Bills getting J.P. Losman. Of course, I thought the same thing when the Packers picked Aaron Rodgers....

The Saints and Falcons are clearly the best teams in the division and I give the slight edge to the Saints because I think this is the year that Drew Brees wins MVP.

NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. St. Louis Rams

A boring division, so a short write up here...
Cardinals break the Super Bowl losing team curse, because let's face it, no one is cursed when they're in such a bad division. If the good Kurt Warner shows up (not the washed-up Giants version) the Cards will be a sleeper pick to make it back to the Super Bowl (and probably lose again).

The Seahawks won't be too bad, but the Niners and Rams will. The Rams started this decade as a surprise juggernaut and will end it as the Lions competition for the number one overall pick (again).

Part 3
Awards:
MVP - Brees
D-MVP - Troy Polamalu

Coach of the year - Mike McCarthy

Super Bowl
New York Giants over Baltimore Ravens

The pattern continues... let's just hope it's not too accurate because another Cowboys title would be another reason why if the technology from Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind ever comes to fruition, Bills fans will be the number one buyers.

No. No matter what - after this pitiful decade of Buffalo Bills football (and more Dick Jauron!), we'll definitely need this technology.