"Congratulations Universe, you win!"
That was my response to hearing that the Buffalo Bills (my favorite team) had signed Mr. Terrell Owens (T.O. - one of my least favorite players and a Riding the Pine go-to joke). I quickly talked myself into the move and I do like, really. It was the right thing to do and should help Buffalo's stagnant offense. And honestly, maybe the Bills (especially Jauron and Edwards) need to be called out by someone, maybe the Bills need that passion, that fire (they don't really need that egotism though...).
Anyway, my point is that I shouldn't have been that shocked. The NFL always has a few surprises up it's sleeve - it's universe will always surprise and baffle us. So, won't it happen again? Most don't seem to think so. For instance, take a look at other season predictions nearly everyone I have read has the Patriots winning the Super Bowl. Really? What a boring, predictable selection. Predictable isn't always a bad thing, the Pats are the favorites and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them win the Super Bowl (I would however, punch a hole in my living room wall the size of T.O.'s ego).
Now, I've seen some crazy picks as the team NE will beat... Chicago, New Orleans, the Las Vegas Locomotives. That just makes no sense, why show all this respect to the Patriots but completely dismiss the other powerhouses of the league, the consistently good teams?
I noticed a trend last year in all the major sports. There were surprise teams in every league including two of the historically (at least for a short history in one case)awful, laughingstock franchises reaching the championship game: The Tampa Bay (non-Devil) Rays and the Arizona Cardinals. Both had very legitimate chances to win too. But in the end it was traditional teams from more reknonwed cities winning. Older franchises that have tasted plenty of glory in the past: the Steelers, the Phillies, the Lakers, the North Carolina Tar Heels, The Penguins, the Gators, whatever WNBA team won the title. So in the end the stalwart franchises prevail. It would be fortune in some cases if this trend continued (go Yankees!) but wouldn't be good for my Bills and Sabres. However, I think it will continue, to certain extent anyway...
Enough build-up, here's this year's preview (I'm calling it a super preview for obvious reasons) and here's to eternal hope that our favorite team will rattle the universe with a improbable Super Bowl victory! (That goes out to everyone but NE, Miami, Jets and Cowboys fans... I hope your teams lose every game. Jerks.)
Part One:
AFC
AFC East
1. You know
2. Miami Dolphins (ugh)
3. BUFFALO BILLS
4. Jersey Jets
This summer I breezed through the Battlestar Gallactica DVDs on Netflix (amazing show), and I can to an important realization. Bill Belichick is a cylon! There's no other explanation, I think Robert Kraft and Roger Gooddell both know about it and continue to do nothing. Al Davis obviously had no clue because he continues to allow NE to rip him off in trades. So, unfortunately, I have to pick the Patriots as division champs again. But I'm holding out hope that the return of the red and white Patriot Pat uniforms (I admit, they're pretty cool) will mean the return of the Patriots playing like they normally did in the gear (sucky).
I have no idea why I always get some pumped for the Bills games against NE, I'm already counting the days until the Monday Night opener (I'm going to loathe waiting all the way through Monday though). But deep down, I'm very pessimistic, in fact I can't see anyway the Bills can win this game. That's why I'm loading up on beer before hand.
But that brings me to my new outlook on the Bills this season, I'm trying something new out. If you've read my past previews, you would have noticed that I twice picked the Bills to make the playoffs. They finished 7-9 both times. I genuinely believed that they were a good team, definitely a playoff team, and maybe a team that could be the year's surprise Super Bowl contestant. The Bills did an awesome job raising these hopes (a 5-1 start, looking like a team of destiny against an undefeated Dallas squad on Monday Night Football), but they crushed these hopes like a swift kick to the groin. And, that's how I've equated being a Bills fan these past few years... it's like being continually pummeled in the groin. Well, no more suffering! I've decided to buy a cup! To put it simply, I'm curbing my enthusiasm, thinking negatively, the keg is half empty, damn it! This way, I'll be less prone to disappointment, they can only surprise me. And everyone likes surprises.
Now, will this work? Probably not, but I'm sure as well not going to predict a playoff birth for Buffalo (even with that Alex Van Pelt magic). In fact, I'm going to say that they won't see the playoffs as long as Dick Jauron is around. It sucks that the nice guys, the guys you'd like to root for, just aren't as good as coaches as the loathsome (possibly evil robot) coaches. To stick with the BSG analogy, the Patriots are the Cylons and the Bills are Caprica - a once proud entity that gets completely destroyed by a more powerful force that surprises them, overpowers them and just simply outsmarts them.
(LOST spoiler: It's all right, once Juliet destroys Jug head and resets the timeline, then both the Bills and Sabres will have avoided all those heartbreakers. There, I feel better already.)
Oh yeah, the Jets and Dolphins are in this division too. Well, I think Miami is well coached, and they could be a feisty opponent. I didn't expect Pennington to be that great last year. They'll flirt with the playoffs, but they're not at an elite level and I don't think their knocking at that specific door either. The Jets are headed in a direction that scares me, but for this year, I think they're overrated and will battle Buffalo for 3rd in the division. Ultimately, they'll show plenty of positives but won't have a record that is much better than mediocre. There's a lot of hype around Sanchez, and I have the feeling that he'll be a pretty good one, but he won't have Ryan or Flacco success. I mean, even Peyton Manning was 3-13 his first year. The silver lining is that, if Sanchez happens to be a bust than the Dirty Sanchez jokes will be all the funnier (PS I know that joke is a little too easy, but hey if it works... Artie Lange didn't let that stop him from using the "Tony Homo" routine on his infamous Joe Buck appearance, and apparently people liked that.)
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Cincy Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns
Oops, did I really pick the Browns to win this division last year? I'm not making that mistake this year. I think the Ravens will be a nasty team this year - a classic smash-mouth, hard-hitting defensive team that no one will want to face in the playoffs. Except Pittsburgh, that is. They won't mind, mainly because they're the new Patriots. Roethsliberger is now the guy that just always finds a way to win. He doesn't put up staggering numbers (they're Pro Bowl worthy, but not MVP/video game-like stats), but if you watch him then you can see how great this guy is. It actually makes me more bitter about the 2004 draft, you know the one where the Steelers and Bills both finished 6-10 the year before but the Steelers picked 11th, the Bills 13th. They got Big Ben, we later traded a bunch picks to get back in the first round and draft the current QB for the Vegas Locomotives, J.P. Losman. After repeatedly bashing my face into a wall, I finally realized that this is just how things work. Teams like the Steelers will always have this kind of luck, other teams will not be as fortunate.
Speaking of unlucky teams, the Bengals and Browns will finish third and forth respectively (or maybe unrespectively). The Bengals aren't a good team, but they aren't that bad either, certainly not as bad as last year. Carson Palmer was on the fast track to greatness, but injuries have wreaked havoc on him and his team. Again, some teams are just have-nots. It doesn't help when you have shoddy ownership and a team notorious for its slew of arrests. One possible bright side, may be 2nd round pick Rey Mauluga. He seems like he could be a steal despite the fact that teams like the Chargers, Ravens and Patriots passed on him. One more Bengal note, is it just me or does Andre Smith seem like the second coming of Mike Williams (not a good thing, Mr. Smith)?
I think the league is a little more fun when teams like the Browns, Bills and Steelers are all good. For most of this decade, that hasn't been the case though and the Browns aren't very good now (I was considering putting D-III super team the Mt. Union Purple Raiders ahead of the Browns, but then I wouldn't be able to recycle that same joke later in the column). Mangini is a bad a coach as Jauron and he probably won't do any better than Romeo Crennel, another former Patriot Defensive coordinator was in Cleveland.
AFC South
1. Colts (I'm really being risky with these division winners obviously)
2. Houston Texans
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
I don't know. I can't quite figure this one out. Without Dungy, Indy will finally be on the decline, right? But, wait, they still have Manning. And Tennessee, I've had a feeling they'd be good the past few years, but I liked them less than other teams in the division so I slotted them at the bottom of the division. Is this the year Houston finally breaks through? Was last year a fluke for Jacksonville? Or was the year before? I just don't know.
I guess my thinking is this, as long as the Colts have Manning they'll be good, as long as the Patriots have Brady, they'll be good, etc. The Colts ended strong last year and I wasn't real discouraged by their playoff loss at San Diego. I won't pick them to win the Super Bowl again, but I do think they'll take the division.
Houston will challenge for a Wild Card spot again. They won't finish 8-8 again, but it'll fall on either side of that - 7-9 or 9-7. I'm not convinced that Schaub is the franchise and he does have problems staying healthy. They do have some franchise guys though, Mario Williams, Andre Johnson and possibly Steve Slaton.
Make no mistake, the Titans will be good again. But you can be a good team and still miss the playoffs in this league. Jeff Fisher is still one of the best and their defense should still be solid even without Haynesworth. But Kerry Collins? I can't see them getting real far with him, sorry, I guess that's Karma for the "Music City Illegal Forward Pass."
The Jags will be better than last year, but their coach looks exactly like Shooter McGavin, and we all know Shooter's fate...
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. USC Trojans
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Denver Broncos
5. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers take this division with more authority than last year's 8-8 clunker. I still can't see them toppling the rest of the AFC field and making it to the big game in Miami at the end of the year.
I'm obviously just kidding about USC, I have no idea how good they'll be this year. Starting a freshman QB is always a risk even for a superpower like Pete Carroll's squad.
I picked the Chiefs last, but I think they're headed in the right direction, in fact I almost picked them to finish second behind the Chargers. There's definitely some concerns, but there's a lot of things to like too, including Scott Pioli and their fiery new coach, former Cards offensive coordinator Todd Haley. It's nice to work with Belichick, but I think Pioli probably had a lot to do with New England's success and I'm not going to doubt his abilities. But it'll take more than one season to rebuild the Chiefs and Matt Cassel remains a question mark (for both health reasons and for the fact that he no longer has New England's awesome supporting cast). Still, playing at Arrowhead is never fun for opponents and the Chiefs will almost certainly pull off some upsets there.
The Raiders have some talent and I think they'll win enough games to finish behind the Chargers. However, they're too dysfunctional to win more than 6 or 7 games and I'm not a huge fan of Tom Cable as a head coach.
Wait, head coaches destined to fail? That sounds like you Josh McDaniels. Those Patriot coordinators have done, for the most part, an awful job after graduating from the school of Belichick. They've done almost as bad as players that have left the esteemed institution (they must miss that pristine cafeteria and it's excellent HGH breakfast burritos). So, that's one strike against McDaniels and the fact that I'm guessing most Broncos fans are enraged that he ripped apart the only positive from last years team (offense), swapped Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton (I know that got a bunch of picks too, but that doesn't really help my point, does it?) is another strike. I'm guessing the third strike comes when the Broncos have a disastrous season and have Pat Bowlen questioning why he fired (future Bills coach?*) Mike Shannahan.
* - only the future coach if Bill Cowher turns down the job. We know Jauron won't be the coach, right? right?
Part 2
NFC
NFC East
1. New York Giants
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys
You can find flaws for every team, but that doesn't mean they aren't a good team. Each one of these teams is flawed, but also extremely talented. This is still the top division in football. Is there an NFC Champion in the bunch? Or a Super Bowl winner? Well...
The Giants were a regular season powerhouse last year, but came up empty in the postseason. Still, they have a great team and I think they'll repeat as division champs (of course I picked them to finish last in the division the year they won the Super Bowl).
Donovan McNabb is one of my favorite players, but I don't think he'll win a Super Bowl. Signing/trading for big names like Jason Peters and Michael Vick is always the way to go, and besides I'm still bitter about Peters shitty performance last year. My only hope is that Demetrius Bell turns out to be better than Peters, signs a contract bigger than Peters and then builds a house right next to Peters only twice as large, and hangs a solid gold sign in his front yard that says, "Suck it, Peters!" I think that sounds reasonable.
Washington and Dallas will have similar records, neither will make the playoffs. Even though, I picked the Cowboys to finish last, I by no means think they're a bad team. But, you have to admit it is might sweet to see Jerry Jones look like a fool. Besides, even if they did make the playoffs they would end up getting bounced in the first round like a punt off their poorly placed score board (Yep).
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Chicago Bears
4. Detriot Lions
The other day at work we were talking about Batman. One of my co-workers was listing villians and this what he said, "You have the Joker, Bookworm, Mr. Freeze-" I cut him off there. What? Bookworm? That sounds made up (and sounds like the lamest villain ever). I was sure that I was a victim of some practical joke, I mean when did Batman start beating up on nerds? However...
Oh, man. Fucking Bookworm, are you kidding me? Anyway. my point is that the Detroit Lions are the Bookworm of the NFL. They're pushovers, more of a punchline than a threat. And I don't like this. I've always liked the Lions because I was a big Barry Sanders fan (who wasn't), and I didn't get as much joy out of their 0-16 as I would have if the Dolphins finished 0-16 (and this is a good time to remind you that they did finish 1-15 just two years ago. Good times). Matt Millen could have read all the books he wanted and he still would have been the worst GM in history (not just NFL history). The only book he did read seemed to be "How to Suck." I certainly hope they're on the right track, but that will mostly depend on if they can build a solid, reliable offensive and defensive line and of course, on Matthew Stafford. I find it funny that most people are automatically assuming that Mark Sanchez will be better than Stafford seemingly just because he was drafted by the Lions. Sadly, I can't say that I disagree.
On to the Bears... Peter King picked the Bears to go to the Super Bowl. Bold, but I don't see it. This is also a good point to mention that I took the Peter King challenge on SI.com last year and kicked his ass. I finished somewhere tied for 18th overall (I think, I don't remember that exact position) and he finish somewhere closer to 1,000th place. Chalk one up for Riding the Pine!
I try not to put too much stock into preseason, but if someone else does, that's fine with me, why would I care? I just think you have to be consistent. For instance, King was getting on the Bills case because how much their offense has sucked in the preseaon (which is a very valid point, because they were awful and both Walker and Schoenert paid for it). But the only team they looked good against was the Bears... who he picks to go to the Super Bowl. Edwards actually outplayed Cutler in that one (it was Cutler's first game as a Bear). The Bills played brilliantly last preseason against the Steelers, Edwards looked great and the starting D terrorized Big Ben, but it didn't matter in the real season when the Bills were finishing 7-9 and the Steelers were winning another Super Bowl.
Of course, one team that looked fantastic in preseason when I watched them was the Packers. That's not why I picked them first though (I'm no hypocrite). I know Favre won't want to finish behind them and I can understand why people pick the Vikings in this division. I've always had a fondness for great running backs and Adrian Peterson definitely falls into that category. But the Packers have that look of a "bounce-back team," one that goes from 6-10 to 11-5 and division champs (or something like that). When Rodgers was sitting behind Favre all those years and even when he was drafted, he reminded me of Losman. Naturally, I thought he would be a bust. I was wrong. And that's something I'm going to keep in mind for my playoff picks - my gut has been wrong. A lot. So, I'm pulling a George Costanza, doing the opposite of what I think is right. Hey, it got him a job with the Yankees...
And before I close up on this division I have to say that I - like everyone else - am sick of Favre's antics. However, when I heard he was flirting with the Vikings, I got a little excited. I mean, come on. Favre against the Packers. At Lambeau. As a Viking. No wonder ESPN has a constant Favre boner.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I've been a big Jake Delhomme fan ever since his awesome performance in the 2004 Super Bowl against New England. But man, that playoff performance was brutal. The Panthers won't get far this year and will look for a new quarterback. Tampa got their new signal caller, but to me the move to reach for Josh Freeman reminded me of the Bills getting J.P. Losman. Of course, I thought the same thing when the Packers picked Aaron Rodgers....
The Saints and Falcons are clearly the best teams in the division and I give the slight edge to the Saints because I think this is the year that Drew Brees wins MVP.
NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. St. Louis Rams
A boring division, so a short write up here...
Cardinals break the Super Bowl losing team curse, because let's face it, no one is cursed when they're in such a bad division. If the good Kurt Warner shows up (not the washed-up Giants version) the Cards will be a sleeper pick to make it back to the Super Bowl (and probably lose again).
The Seahawks won't be too bad, but the Niners and Rams will. The Rams started this decade as a surprise juggernaut and will end it as the Lions competition for the number one overall pick (again).
Part 3
Awards:
MVP - Brees
D-MVP - Troy Polamalu
Coach of the year - Mike McCarthy
Super Bowl
New York Giants over Baltimore Ravens
The pattern continues... let's just hope it's not too accurate because another Cowboys title would be another reason why if the technology from Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind ever comes to fruition, Bills fans will be the number one buyers.
No. No matter what - after this pitiful decade of Buffalo Bills football (and more Dick Jauron!), we'll definitely need this technology.
